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Technology Stocks : IFMX - Investment Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: investorgal who wrote (9647)	2/21/1998 11:40:00 AM
From: Robert Graham	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14631

Thank you for your well-reasoned and balanced feedback on Bob F and IFMX. After having followed the market for some time, I have learned to be suspicious. I first look for what is wrong with a company and its related newsworthy events instead of looking for what is right about a company. In this way, I rarely have been disappointed even though I may have passed up a few good investment opportunities. And then IFMX comes along to remind me how important this approach of mine is to follow. I did not realize that SAP and BAAN have backed away from partnering with Informix. I must of been away from this saga for too long. Also I agree that if Bob F is able to convince analysts that Informix is now on the road to recovery, we will be seeing higher share prices. That earlier drop to 5 surprised me, but then I knew this low price would attract other investors to the stock, particularly when there is good news to come out about Informix's turnaround efforts. I just did not expect the "good news" to come so soon. One thought that has just come to mind is that I understand Bob F is using stock options to retain the current staff of employees. If this is true, I wonder if the new quantity of shares provided in this way is of any concern to us? Bob Graham

To: investorgal who wrote (9647)	2/21/1998 1:34:00 PM
From: Lee L.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14631

Investorgal and Bob Graham, Agreed that Bob F's rescue of IFMX can largely be attributed to clever accounting. However, let's not forget that F. did make some very hard decisions that made real contributions to the company's survival. My thoughts on your points: 0) Will the audited results hold up? They better, or we're all in deep trouble! (the longs, anyhow). 1) Real revenue growth without restatement? IMO, not really. F. was in a rotten catch-22: can't get new business until IFMX is proved profitable, can't get profitable without new business. So what's a guy to do? In the short term, A. redo the books, B. show viability/profitability on paper, C. aggressively work to obtain new business. We've seen A and B, for the next couple of quarters, C is the focus. 2) Can expenses stay down? Absolutely. Don't forget that F. canned lots of employees. If you review IFMX's 1996's SEC filings, you see that White brought on tons of sales and marketing types. All aspects of SG&A expense were completely out of control. I am confident that this is not the case today. 3) Real new customers in 1997? Sort of... but not as impressive as the press releases lead us to believe. F. made some inroads, but we're not out of the woods. How do you get new F500 business? Another catch-22: big companies don't invest in a software vendor like IFMX unless other big companies are investing in that vendor. So what's a guy to do? 1. Make the most of the deals that you have and give the illusion that `everyone else' is buying IFMX, 2. Aggressively go after `real' new business. 4) Quality marketing. IMO, this isn't so important right now. Let press releases from new business be the immediate marketing strategy. Don't waste your money on billboards and ComputerWorld ads yet. 5) Real buy-in from partners. I would guess that this may be the case. However, I believe that these relationships can be more easily repaired. I would agree with your comment on CIS vendors. I know for fact that Siebel (the largest/hottest CIS vendor) thought (thinks?) that Informix is non-existent. 6) New sales management. I didn't understand your comment here. Do you think it's getting better or worse? If Informix can execute well on all fronts (sales, financials, management), then I think we could easily see $15 by year end. I think that there are two wild-cards for Informix right now: W1) Will ORDMBS really take-off in `98? If so, then I believe that Informix will get real hot real fast. I wouldn't expect this until the end of `98 if at all. W2) Will Informix be bought out? I would put the odds at 1 in 5. Any suitor would have to be a big, blue-chip corporate IS supplier. I would select IBM if I had such power. Perhaps HWP.... I dunno. Consolidation is all the rage right now. Good luck, Lee.