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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Adams who wrote (2518)	2/21/1998 12:17:00 AM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9256

Mark, FYI a mrkt research firm in Santa Barbara, Peripheral Research Corp. has CY 1997 head market shares for Read-Rite and IBM at a dead even 14% each on a total market of 911,390,000 heads. This number includes thin-film inductive and MR. The difference is that IBM was 100% MR (including low quantities of GMR heads). In 1997 an appreciable amount of Read Rite's MR head production actually was for tape drive heads, as opposed to disk drive heads. Seagate had a 33% market share. TDK(SAE) had a total of 12% market share. There is another forecaster, TrendFocus from San Jose. I do not have their numbers but if anyone does I would be curious to see how they compare. Generally these firms are within 10% or so of one another. I suspect that Seagate will always have an outside supplier of heads. It makes sense. I also expect that IBM intends to increase OEM output as reflected in the Maxtor release. At the present I am bearish on the independent suppliers of heads and media. I see them at the mercy of a dwindling market, fighting over fewer customers. I am especially bearish on thin film media suppliers where there is even greater over capacity then in the head or drive segment. Komag currently has half of their lines idled in Malaysia. MaxMedia is rumored to have delayed their planned expansion here as well. Trace Magnetics in Taiwan is virtually idled. HMTT seems to be holding their own. STMD is history IMHO. Fuji Electric and Showa Denko are both expanding but I think it is a very flexible plan. The Managing Director for Showa Denko was recently reported in the Malaysian press as indicating there were alternative products the firm could build in the factory in Kulim, Malaysia that will be finished in the first quarter of 1999. Fujitsu has announced they will build a media plant in the Philippines for internal supply of media. IBM supplies all their own media with plants in San Jose, Singapore, and Germany. Komag's business plan fell through when Seagate pulled back orders in favour of in house media. A recent visit to SAE suggests there is no slowing down and they continue to expand their MR lines. Yamaha is competing nicely on the market, but has yet to have the expansion programs seen elsewhere. Hope this helps. Best, Stitch