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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: howto who wrote (17088)	2/21/1998 1:31:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

howard gore- Keep watching and let us know if you find new stocks like everyone else we would like your and others input on individual stocks so as to pick some nice selections- with best regards.

To: howto who wrote (17088)	2/22/1998 7:33:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

howard- off topic -'Keep it simple silly ' ....some do' and don'ts of my model. Trading made easy. Nice to know that you are new to investing and posting - I thought that may be some shared thoughts on how I look at markets may interest you- this now being very pertinent for education of markets for which I have always thrived on this thread- content has to be posted and new ideas generated this is the reason I hosted this thread, it may not interest many but I know people who visit me now are mostly who want to read my thoughts and hence freed from bondages I am really enjoying my freedom and letting my time being spent on bettering my model by going back what I said and if it was right or wrong.. When I went wrong on INTC TXN CPQ for a quarter last Oct- INTC missed by 3 cents although I wrote many a posts that this is a blip and this noise will be down within a quarter- now that we are nearly back up there within a quarter - I take two deductions from my past posts listed herein- 1- Keep your core portfolio separate from trading- your trading should never exceed 5% or maximum 10% of your portfolio. 2-Never get swayed with noise- base your trading on fundamentals and keep faith- never go for intermediate levels- ' intra-day shorting' you get whipsawed most of the time- these models are baseless and no one can tell you if market is a short or a long based on computer models- if that was the case super computer must have put the locals out of business- unfortunately it is computers who are subject of worse abuse- this is what you call as computer driven program's, this is the reason that most money managers with all that hedge around them beat S&P by few points annual basis if you look into their statements you find them exiting very interesting positions on computer driven sell-off it is people like Buffet who survive most of the carnage, imagine someone missing this whole run from 7600 to 8450 in 30 days because he thought market to turn around at 990. I assure you most of these intra-day levels are fluke to know my levels I don't check charts, I check 'history' of the chart - and this is the reason I called ' Barron's article a fluke, I wrote DOW 8000 is a steal- they never replied me back but now with DOW at 8451 they still are in business I would be out if DOW was 5900 as predicted. They have a carte blanche to mislead and stay in business we cannot our bread and butter will be cut. However it is publications like this that create walls of fear and mislead so many at the right levels to go long. Without so many pessimists the market will become to much of a gamble it is fear and greed which keeps traders in control- so Barron's articles should be read but a case should be made in your own mind openly. I will write a level like 1018 1008 1002 998 992 on SOX 313 308 302 298 290 280-now 1748 on Naz was predicted when composite was 1645- my level is 1725 1710 these are the levels I trade with- if I see 1030 being taken out I will look at TB's what happening their if there in no sell-off- that gives first indication that it is 'locals' playing then I look at Composite SOX BKX OSX- and my big ten stocks if every thing is in order I would rather look at going long at major support like if they will test 1030 I will be looking at all these indicators and will decide to go long at a test of 1028 not 1030-reason every time they test a support they flush out and trigger stops so always initiate below a strong support a long not at the support second never do it on second dip- second dip more likely is real it is the first quick one- you trade. In history of charts I go back and see what happened last time SPA was 990- a TA chartist will short it there as five times it broke from that resistance- unfortunate poor habit- but a fundamentalist and a 'bird eye viewest' will tell you never short a market making new highs- I amusingly watched this self destruction push button being pressed time and time again like market orders being punched for the locals to trigger and run the stops first they will short you at 1030 and then will take you to 1034 to stop you out- this is happening from time immemorial as we trade with fear so if you keep a generous levels to watch you more then often don't get whipsawed neither you loose your core positions. Now we will take a moment and go back and look around for our education what were people saying when we were making probes on 990 the last break- go through you will be shocked when 'bhumbo' came 95% were expecting a 500 point drop- market on a Friday before gave them the 962 was not taken out but short positions were initiated and on Monday euphoric rally in ASEA led SPA open limit higher- classic market trap and then shorts looked for reprieve and they never really got one levels don't comeback once a new high is taken out- this is a classic occasion once a year event but that is what a chart will not tell you -short the market when it breaks a support- never be a hero to short when it is probing new highs imagine someone shorting AOL- yes it 'will' come down but no one can run the short squeeze. Market is not about one's ideas it is about you being on the right side more often then not. Al this is to put odds in your favor. Charts are peripheral and fringe items not much of consequence- they will not give you an indication of break neither they would advice you to go long at the most appropriate occasion, now every one is trying to be long it is too late to catch this great move from 6900 on 27th Oct to now and mind you the most riskiest of the leg up. Fourth leg movement may be quite good for SOX for SPA 1040 to 1070 movement is hi-risk movement . I look at a divergence here in SOX and SPA a real possibility. But such is a motivation that catching up on the fourth leg the most riskiest is now acceptable cuurency but not riding the reversal from 243 or reversal at 7000 this is herd action- Have heavens come down on earth? -the same guys who were talking of INTC and SOX destruction on Oct 25th- Nov 1-10th and Dec 1 and are finding a way to enter- but their are no free lunches you pay through higher risk for entry here. In virgin territories go for 'psychological levels' watch out like for 8500- nothing in this number but we will see a break their for two reasons one- look back at 7498 a super support and number itself- if you look at your levels it took three months of backing and filling to take out 1000 on SPA what was so special in a number - just every trader is a superstitious character they just stumble in front of a round number- delusions have destroyed markets before so always be ready for a check on 'uncontrollable hype' - SI bull/bear ratio keep an eye on that- very pertinent tool. Then always audit your posts check if your system works, free it from short term time constraints- the way to be assure is like ask questions like did it break 850 ever again? if not why - did we get 890 break after 27th ever again?- if not why- yes turning bearish would have been be right if 890 was taken out again with two close and that was my level at which we would place a long term bearish trade for move down but otherwise we left our positions running. That is how I trade, I call it 'no-non sense sensible humble trading' no frills no big talks simple plain vanilla. Last but not least exchange and write as much as you can - don't just give levels define them if you cannot- bury your model. If you cannot make a case on long and short- explain people how do you reach the conclusion to go short- that is most important morally. Let them also know who you are trade above board - I assure you chances of you being caught on wrong side will never be their, this is what made me select BKX bottom and made trades like NOK WFC MSFT and SOX turnaround at 243 also the classic break at 280 I am late but 4% but I am there with surety and that is how one should tread this difficult markets. This is how when I look back at my posts I see that more then often my logic stick up together- this is the reason I try to explain it to my friends- Keep it simple silly. One never win against the 'locals' term used for pit brokers in Chicago- go long on good quality stocks- TA should be the last first is business and global demand and anticipated market action- never short a stock making new high like AOL or never short leading stock like INTC or MSFT-- the guys who make their life around skewed analogies on half cooked facts are not interested in money making they are more into running imaginary positions and run perpetual short positions may be a good example of self delusion. Always go with the trend and identify real from false like we did on 28th morning and posted at 8.00 to 11 several posts even initiating long positions. Never be a bull or a bear- come to market with a clean slate- determine your levels with conventional wisdom think 'locals'- never execute levels where everyone else has punched their stops always keep a generous 4 point margin- never get worried by the first dip let market recover and if it fails to hold and slip back to your level short it same apply for going long- suppose if 320 is taken out in SOX wait ideally for a day and next morning seeing the trend place a bet sometime the strongest resistance is the last trap- wait check out for a close and that is the reason you have by puritans like me a 2 closes above a certain level as a genuine buy signal- I keep repeating these things to re-learn myself and let people be aware of 'how simple trading is'. I just remember when we tested 6950 level- it was the second day close above 7200 which gave me a clear indication that this is not a beginning of a bear cycle the second day close below 850 would have taken SPA to 770 April 96 levels but it was not to be and what an opportunity missed for bears. Markets may go down but to miss a 1600 move is funny and to go short one can always do it at much higher levels with little application, it is state of mind which is most important. Encourage investors for long core positions with indexes used as a hedge- now I stayed and this thread stayed with INTC see how it is trading now I go back to check if my projections about markets were right true or not- the only way one can look at his trading is his posts that is the yardstick - it was the above principles in action based on which I wrote some of this.. I took pun and flak but today 'credit' is in my account. I can walk with my head up as I never mislead anyone- I was wrong for a short quarter but my model works- exchange2000.com exchange2000.com exchange2000.com