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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric Klein who wrote (3379)	2/21/1998 9:18:00 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

<< 1. CIEN was selling for 15 times sales >> Good point. It's not selling for 15 times sales anymore so I like it. (It's trading at about 9 1/2 times sales now) << 2. Competition had just been announced from Lucent >> Doesn't every industry have competition? Show me an industry without competition and I will show you an industry that is probably not very profitable. << 3. Every stock market transaction is a gamble. >> True, and CIEN was much more of a gamble at 63 than it is at 42. At 42 it is reasonably priced. << I think WCOM is delaying because they are unsure of the future. IMO many companies will be pushing out purchases of infrastructure build outs and in other ways becoming more conservative in their expansion plans. >> IXC's/CLEC's cannot afford to sit back and let traffic jam up on their network. They will be forced to upgrade or they will lose their competitive edge and die. Just wait until xDSL and cable modems start being deployed in a big way. The strain on the networks will be so large that WCOM and other carriers will be begging CIEN for more WDM products.

To: Eric Klein who wrote (3379)	2/21/1998 4:11:00 PM
From: Dan Ross	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

<<3. Every stock market transaction is a gamble.>> This is where I disagree BIG TIME.....Good investing utilizes fundamental analysis....It is a calculated risk...Ie. risk/return scenario based on probabilities drawn out...... The fact that you utilize the word gamble for every stock transaction has me VERY concerned.....I think many people, including myself at one time, are using the stock market as their LAS VEGAS CASINO..... This is just one view point but one that should be carefully monitored by EACH PERSON themselves......Take a look in the mirror, everyone, and look at the way you invest your money.....Is it gambling or is it investing using industry forecasts, knowledge, financial analysis, etc?.....If some of these meaningful techniques arent being used it may be time to re-evaluate "investing".....perhaps a long-term view with cash stuck in a mutual fund would work out better... Dan Ross