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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Paul Senior who wrote (76608)11/26/2024 6:38:34 PM
From: E_K_S1 Recommendation

Recommended By
RWS

  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78523
 
I may be wrong but I still think their relationship with Amazon has value.

Kohl's Corporation (KSS) and Amazon have established a partnership that allows customers to return eligible Amazon purchases at Kohl's stores. This agreement, which began as a pilot program in 2017, expanded to all Kohl's locations nationwide by July 2019.
While specific terms regarding the duration of the agreement have not been publicly detailed, the partnership has been in effect since 2017 and has been expanded significantly since then. Given its success in driving customer traffic and enhancing convenience for Amazon shoppers, it is expected to continue long-term 2 6
.This collaboration not only benefits customers by simplifying returns but also serves Kohl's strategic interests by attracting new shoppers to their stores.
The other big assets Kohl's has is their company owned real estate.

So what is the EXIT strategy for Kohls?

Today, Kohl's Corporation has announced the appointment of Ashley Buchanan as its new Chief Executive Officer, effective January 15, 2025. (NOTE: They did not have to do this as the interim CEO has been running the company for the last 24 months.)

  • CEO of Michaels Companies (2020-Present): Buchanan has successfully led Michaels, enhancing profitability and cash flow while expanding its digital presence and optimizing store formats. His leadership included simplifying merchandise strategies and introducing operational efficiencies 1 4 5
    .
  • Walmart Tenure (13 Years): Prior to Michaels, he held significant roles at Walmart, including Chief Merchandising Officer and Chief Operating Officer for U.S. e-Commerce. This experience provided him with a strong foundation in retail operations and merchandising 2 3 6
    .
  • Early Career: Buchanan began his career at Dell in finance and later worked at Accenture, focusing on retail solutions 5.
With Kohl's large company owned real estate the potential for an exit strategy involving Kohl's and Amazon could indeed lead to significant changes in Kohl's real estate utilization, including sales-leaseback transactions and the creation of mini warehouse hubs within Kohl's stores. This approach is increasingly seen as a way for traditional retailers to adapt to the evolving retail landscape dominated by e-commerce giants like Amazon.
I will give the new CEO a minimum of 6 months to figure out a plan but the one HUGE intangible assets they have is their Amazon relationship & their company owned real estate. Create mini-warehouse hubs and expand their DTC business all w/ the help from Amazon. I am not sure that people shop at Kohl's because of their 'brand'.

Could this end up as another K-Mart or Sears . . very possible too.



To: Paul Senior who wrote (76608)12/2/2024 7:00:14 PM
From: E_K_S  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78523
 
Re: Kohl's Corp (KSS) vs Target Corp (TGT)

Perplexity response to Company Owned Real-estate
FWIW the current market cap for KSS is $1.665 Billion; EV = $5.892 Billion; Price/BV 0.43x
KSS has $7.5 Billion in debt

Real estate value is $5-$8 Billion
Kohl's Corporation (KSS) has a significant real estate portfolio, with approximately 55% of its store locations owned outright. This includes properties that are either fully owned or ground-leased, totaling about 400 properties out of approximately 1,162 stores as of early 2023 6 8
.Real Estate Value and Percentage The estimated value of Kohl's owned real estate is believed to be between $5 billion and $8 billion. A conservative estimate suggests it could be around $4 to $5 billion 2 5 6
. Given Kohl's total assets reported at about $14.1 billion, the owned real estate represents approximately 35% to 57% of the company's total asset value, depending on the valuation used for the real estate 4 6
.Summary
  • Total Owned Real Estate: Approximately 400 properties (55% of store locations).
  • Estimated Value: $4 to $8 billion.
  • Percentage of Total Assets: 35% to 57%.
This substantial real estate portfolio positions Kohl's as an attractive target for potential acquisitions and financial maneuvers, such as sale-leaseback transactions, which have been discussed in various contexts recently 3 5
.
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Re: Target Corp (TGT)

For reference I asked Perplexity on Target's company owned real estate and was surprised by this answer:

Target Corporation (TGT) owns a substantial amount of real estate, including both stores and distribution centers. Here’s a detailed breakdown of their company-owned real estate compared to leased properties: Company-Owned vs. Leased Real Estate
  • Total Owned Stores: 1,532
  • Total Leased Stores: 264
  • Stores on Leased Land: 160
Square Footage
  • Average Store Size: Approximately 126,000 square feet.
  • Total Owned Store Square Footage:
    1,532 stores×126,000 sq ft store=192,792,000 sq ft1,532 stores×126,000 sq ft store=192,792,000 sq ft
  • Total Leased Store Square Footage:
    264 stores×126,000 sq ft store=33,264,000 sq ft264 stores×126,000 sq ft store=33,264,000 sq ft
Total Owned Real Estate Value The estimated value of Target's owned real estate is significant. The total worth of the owned properties is generally assessed based on market conditions and typical cap rates for retail properties. While specific valuation figures can vary, estimates suggest that Target's owned real estate could be worth around $5 billion to $8 billion, depending on the valuation metrics used. Summary
  • Total Owned Real Estate (sq ft): Approximately 192.8 million sq ft.
  • Total Leased Real Estate (sq ft): Approximately 33.3 million sq ft.
  • Estimated Value of Owned Real Estate: Between $5 billion and $8 billion.
This extensive portfolio underscores Target's strategic investment in real estate as a core component of its business model.
I did not know they own a substantial amount of their distribution Centers too

Target Corporation (TGT) has a significant portion of its real estate portfolio dedicated to distribution centers. Here are the details regarding their company-owned distribution centers: Distribution Center Ownership and Statistics
  • Total Distribution Centers: 58
  • Company-Owned Distribution Centers: 38 (approximately 65% of total distribution centers)
Square Footage
  • Total Square Footage of Distribution Centers: Approximately 59.2 million square feet across all centers.
  • Average Size of Company-Owned Distribution Centers: Assuming an average size of around 1.56 million square feet per center, the total owned square footage would be:
    38 centers×1,560,000 sq ft center˜59,280,000 sq ft38 centers×1,560,000 sq ft center˜59,280,000 sq ft
Market Value The approximate market value of Target's distribution centers can vary based on location and market conditions. However, estimates suggest that the value of these owned distribution centers could range between $4 billion and $6 billion, based on typical commercial property valuations. Summary
  • Portion of Owned Real Estate: 38 out of 58 distribution centers (65%).
  • Total Square Footage of Owned Distribution Centers: Approximately 59.2 million sq ft.
  • Estimated Market Value: Between $4 billion and $6 billion.
This robust distribution network is a critical component of Target's supply chain strategy, enabling efficient logistics and inventory management across its retail operations.
Not sure of the estimates for market value but based on TGT's market cap of $60.95 Billion, their real estate is only 17% of their current market cap. TGT's EV= $73.2 Billion & Debt = $22.6 Billion; Price/BV 4.14x