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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ggersh who wrote (209448)	12/15/2024 8:13:34 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By ggersh Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218069

re <<The videos here show that China appears to be ready for the coming storm, Russia is currently fighting that storm apparently with one hand tied behind its back, for reasons that might or not be known to all. Iran, is it the weak link? Have Russia/Iran signed the much talked about defence pact yet?>> a few items to add to considerations, that ... (1) Now Russia seconded some hands indubitably looser, for the earlier suspected / non-existent N Korean soldiers have drawn first-blood on the far western front, and according to Reuters reporting what Zelensky said, reuters.com North Korean troops join Russian assaults in significant numbers, Kyiv says Normally I would discount or entirely dismiss such report as fog-of-war stuffing, but this time the matter is also reported in a different way from the China-direction, and that apparently the west-reported 'special forces' and east-reported 'scouts' made a good show for Team N Korea for and on behalf of Team Russia. If continue to be true (video-stream soldiers, flags, etc), Russia unlikely or less likely to lose, or more probably to definitely shall win, depending on whether and when Nato and which even if all Nato forces choose to engage with two warrior nations fighting shoulder to shoulder neural-backed by a third Whilst the Russians and N Koreans have a mutual defence treaty en.wikipedia.org–Russian_Treaty_on_Comprehensive_Strategic_Partnership#:~:text=The%20Treaty%20on%20Comprehensive%20Strategic,Vladimir%20Putin%20to%20North%20Korea. The Russians and Chinese do NOT have a mutual defence treaty because China is neutral and ONLY a relationship of 'Friendship without Limits" that which the CW trying to puzzle out what the limits to no-limits might be, if any. I am guessing, and just a guess, that the think-tanks are thinking excessively, for no-limits mean exactly that, no-limits carnegieendowment.org Taiwan and the Limits of the Russia-China Friendship Russian-Chinese “friendship without limits” rests on a solid foundation. Two factors—shared authoritarian domestic politics and adversarial relations with the United States—are most important. However, complication, that the N Koreans and Chinese do have a mutual defence treaty delimiting how far N Korea might fall and not again rise, meaning never ever and tested by spilt blood en.wikipedia.org–North_Korea_relations#:~:text=In%201961%2C%20the%20two%20countries,in%201981%2C%202001%20and%202021. So, a direct attack by Nato on N Korea would be a serious-serious escalation ... against China-China-China (1-i) the N Korean troops fight on own at and beyond contact line and separate from Russian units to reduce battle space confusion (1-ii) the N Koreans took down 300 Ukrainians within 2 and 1/2 hours battle contact (1-iii) the N Korean units are comprised of 3 fellows each, with 2 units assigned to each Ukrainian strong point; apparently the Russians are impressed by the N Korean ways of tactics Iran? When chips are about to be all-in, whatever the Iranians might need and Russia / China unwilling to supply, can count on N Korean dispensation of largess, am guessing, or tally in Pakistan capabilities / capacities, just-saying Help for supposedly unhelpful to humanity entities is not about supposed values but all to do with tribal survival, 'nuff said ... and no, no nation has mutual defence compact with Pakistan, but China, tested over the eons, has been singularly 'steadfast' en.wikipedia.org–Pakistan_relations#:~:text=There%20are%20strong%20military%20ties,Soviet%20influence%20in%20the%20area. (2) ... perhaps a follow-on post, just to make clear what is easily seen should anyone look, and nothing to do with anything else, just-saying and 'nuff-said; earlier in the SI postings termed "just-IS"

To: ggersh who wrote (209448)	12/15/2024 8:38:24 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218069

re <<appears>> ... (2) Re the 'loss of Syria', curiouser developments might be happening, that without Assad, Syria appears to draw closer to the other side per report by Tass rt.com Russia negotiating with Syrian jihadists on military bases – TASS The Khmeimim and Tartus bases, leased until 2066, are reportedly operating as usual ... should the narrative be correct, China shall owe much to Russia should Russia inherit Syria without constraint of Assad, meaning everybody tee-ed up, or, at the very least, China tee-ed up by somebody(ies) in the meantime fast work from the get-go of EU / Nato sanctioning of Russia shadow fleet politico.eu EU approves new sanctions on Russian ‘shadow fleet’ ... as Russian gas energy reaches China by pipeline, but oil energy by pipeline, train, and ships, but definitely by ships to India and so India tee-ed up per report by RT (but might not be true-true) rt.com Russian oil tankers sinking in Black Sea (VIDEO) The two ships had 29 crew members on board when calls for help were issued, the Russian Emergency Ministry has said per CNN edition.cnn.com Two Russian cargo ships are in distress near Crimea following bad weather edition.cnn.com Video appears to show Russian cargo ship split in two, sinking near Crimea

To: ggersh who wrote (209448)	12/15/2024 9:07:37 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218069

re <<China appears to be ready for the coming storm>> (3) I do not remember China has hereto ever been so upfront re Sino-Japan history, meaning something is up as deemed by the very top, to reach the very bottom, and at the very least Japan tee-ed up People tend to either forget or belittle that which both Russia, China, and Korea experienced that mark 'forever' tribal civilisational national memories It is as if either WWII not quite over, or that WWIII might start, and that Japan stance-d incorrectly in the matter of Sino- and Germany is mistaken in terms of Russia- Dunno, but perhaps Japan & Germany best flip, or others best cease / desist from using German / Japan as proxies, for both might not last very long in any true confrontation, just a guess Another guess, Japan can forget about the four islands held by Russia as own

To: ggersh who wrote (209448)	12/15/2024 9:23:20 PM
From: Pogeu Mahone	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218069

One never knows if the troops are ready for the storm until they are battle hardened Russia a prime example of raw recruits who did not know what they were doing. Not being able to put down Ukraine. Does China have battle hardened troops? No, China does not have "battle-hardened" troops in the sense of having significant recent combat experience, as the People's Liberation Army (PLA) lacks substantial real-world warfighting experience, which is considered a major weakness compared to other major military powers like the United States; experts often cite this lack of combat experience as a potential vulnerability in a conflict scenario. China Has A Formidable Marine Corps But PLA's UN Peace-Keeping Fiasco Shows It's Not Battle-Hardened. The PLA Marine Corps (PLANMC) is a vital cog in Xi Jinping's dream of establishing a Sino-centric world order as he builds the strongest military in the world.Jan 16, 2024

To: ggersh who wrote (209448)	12/15/2024 9:36:39 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218069

re <<appears>> ... the western / eastern front looking fluid and fogged-in

To: ggersh who wrote (209448)	12/16/2024 4:34:22 AM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By ggersh Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218069

re <<storm>> ... scroll to end of post and see the issues ... lots and lots of issues ... problematic to the point of best not tried, and should anyone try, in scale, depression and hyper-inflation, as ICBM dual is impractical when one side does not know which ICBM work as built 30+ years ago when the other side sports all new ICBMs It is a good thing that Team China really only interested in maintaining growth by doing business I am wondering what Team Russia is pitching to Team China by latest visit, for the read-out says bubcus google.com quora.com Will China finally collapse if the US put Iran-style sanctions on China? Namely, cut China out of SWIFT, severely punish any entity or country that does business with China, cut off all ties with China, basically kick China out of the global economy. Why exactly are Russian Sanctions not working? It's because Russia supplies Oil, Gas, Fertilizers, Food and Raw Materials to the Global Supply These goods have a huge demand So no matter what you do, people will find other ways to pay for these goods from Russia So the Sanctions remain moot And if Russia's Products are not part of the Global Supply, the Global Supply will shrink and the prices will surge through the roof If Russian Supply is cut off, then even at 50% of the Demand of 2018, Oil Prices would rise to $ 139 a barrel So obviously people, even Europeans will have to find a way to pay the Russians and ensure Russian Oil, Gas and other products keep flowing to the Global Supply Chain Why would Sanctions not work on China? Same reason China may not produce Oil Or Gas but it produces 57% of the World's “Cheap Goods” Chinese Goods imported into half the world, retail for a sum between 2.5–6 timestheir import value and this sum goes as Salaries, Development funds, expansion funds, investments etc Around $ 100 Billion of Imports from China cause a value addition of :- $ 261 Billion in Germany $ 279 Billion in Russia $ 178 Billion in Japan $ 409 Billion in India $ 536 Billion in USA So by cutting off $ 100 Billion of Imports from China to the US Economy, you are cutting off $ 436 Billion of Value Enhancement into the US Economy After all when a Chinese made shoe imported for $ 47 sells for $ 139 retail, Walmart makes $ 40 in profit which is almost 91% of the import price of the show This $ 436 Billion alone could cause additional inflation of 1.25% a year Plus a huge supply shortage which could cause more inflation Already Trump Tariffs are being easily by passed by near sourcing from Mexico Soon there will be more Chinese goods coming in from Bolivia, Dominica or some South African Nation Ultimately the only way to successfully sanction China is to find an alternate origin station of these goods However for 100 Tons of Goods manufactured by China today :- India makes 8.5 Tons Vietnam makes 7.7 Tons Turkey makes 5.2 Tons Bangladesh makes 4.4 Tons Mexico (Non China) makes 3.1 Tons Combined today, the other five nations make 29% of what China alone can make in a single year There is a second reason:- Reciprocity China represents a Huge Market In 2010, the Chinese Market had a Domestic Fulfilment (Demand fulfilled by Domestic Manufacturers) of 7.2% In 2023, this number rose to 40.4% This means 40% of Chinas Market is fully catered to by Domestic Manufacturing which means 60% of the Market STILL requires Foreign Products and Services 60% of the Market means close to $ 7 Trillion a year If the West sanctions China, China could cut off the West and it's access to the $ 7 Trillion Market Western Entitities could lose almost $ 4.5 Trillion from such a move There is no alternate market today in Asia For every $ 100 that a Chinese Consumer spends on foreign goods :- Indian Consumers spend $ 14.75 Japanese Consumers spend $ 18.50 South Korean Consumers spend $ 14.40 ASEAN Consumers spend $ 20.42 Thus the biggest nations in Asia including all of ASEAN, economy wise collectively buy and spend only 68% of what China alone spends on foreign goods So no way they can suddenly increase their spending by 140% So right now Sanctions against China would be more catastrophic than Russia for the West The cost of $ 1 Loss to China would mean between $ 5–6 for the West China can somehow adjust with BRI nations and avoid a killer blow Yet the West can't It would accelerate their decline So these Sanctions simply won't work beyond a few weeks or months at the most Their time is over on this earth and their masters, the West are terrified of this