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Technology Stocks : Dupont Photomasks (DPMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shane forbes who wrote (150)	2/21/1998 7:04:00 PM
From: Duane L. Olson	Respond to of 955

Wizard, you have my point exactly...Factually, DPMI has been reporting Sales Growth, --and SIGNIFICANT Sales growth -- as high as 39%, quarter over quarter, for at least the last four quarters, per the Forms 10Q filed with the SEC...and the analysts are projecting INCREASING SALES GROWTH over the next two years as the semiconductor industry resumes it's upcycle. A quick check of the analysts via Yahoo shows a (calculated) rate of (earnings) growth around 21%, and projected higher. Now, since I want to analyze this stock for it's PROSPECTS, it seems to me that I would look that those projected earnings next year ($2.60), and assign a REASONABLE PE multiple to get a RATIONALE, UNBIASED valuation for the stock. Would you think, given the recent sales growth, as reported to the SEC, and the projected double-digit earnings growth going forward, that a PE between 25 and 40 might be acceptable, given DPMI's acknowledged GROWTH status in this sector? To be VERY CONSERVATIVE, I would look at a 25 PE and come up with a valuation of $65/share.. And I would be highly SUSPICIOUS of lower valuations!! (Like, are we talking to Short Sellers, or What??!).. After you have looked at those last four, consecutive quarters of earnings growth, Wizard, and checked the projected earnings increased over the next two years... give me your assessment.. Always nice to have someone who honestly looks at the FACTS..and gives a REASONED opinion...Thanks! The Saintly One.. :-)

To: shane forbes who wrote (150)	2/21/1998 7:18:00 PM
From: Duane L. Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 955

Also, right, O Wise Wizard, DPMI already is prepared to support finer line lithography all the way down to .13 micron... the first of the mask providers to get there... and they are installing this advanced technology in the LSI complex going in at Gresham... where they are positioned to support both the advanced LSI Coreware projects, and INTC's next two generations of advanced chips.. In addition to that nice Sales Growth that DPMI has been reporting, year over year for the past four quarters in their 10Q filings, and the great prospects for continued (high) double digit growth in both sales and earnings going forward.. The BIG factor for me is that chip NUMBERS are expanding rapidly (witness the rapid growth in new fabs), and as the COMPLEXITY of chips increases -- more masks are required.. So DPMI grows FASTER than strict chip counts would indicate. In Other Words, a GROWTH stock supporting a cyclical growth industry. AND, it doesn't matter which Company, or which Country wins a particular chip battle....with 37% of the world Photomask market, and with plants in twelve countries around the world...DPMI will be there supplying more and more complex mask to WHOMEVER makes the chips.. What a deal :-) There are some neat advanced technology projects ongoing at DPMI also, which offer possibilities of future niche market locks that could be a significant boost to earnings downstream.. Knowing the WIZARD, you will be digging more of these out than I have, OWW... and I will look forward with great anticipation to feeding those into the assessment.. Meanwhile, based on what we have, you can see why I when big time into this one in January and am continuing to buy. Not too many better around, IMHO!!! The Saintly One

To: shane forbes who wrote (150)	2/22/1998 12:27:00 AM
From: Duane L. Olson	Respond to of 955

And if you like DPMI's position in conventional lithography, Wiz, (Installing capability to go beyond .26 micron to .13 micron in the Gresham plant, for example)... Then their unique alliance with LUCENT should be especially profitable (literally), as the technology shifts to Electron Beam Lithography, and the lines go to .08 micron and lower.. DPMI is already working that...and if we don't get a future sales GROWTH jolt from that effort..then there is no hope for anyone in the industry... Here's a nice little article on those prospects: biz.yahoo.com The Saintly One

To: shane forbes who wrote (150)	2/22/1998 12:42:00 AM
From: Duane L. Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 955

DPMI's joint venture R&D Facility with MU, Motorola, AMD, etc, in Texas is another reason, IMHO, that DPMI's future growth is assured.. DPMI is working with those folks right now to identify the ways to maximize the effectiveness of photomask technology... with the prospect that it is DPMI to which these companies will go to meet future photomask needs... Here's more, off the DPMI Home Page: Quote Industry Leaders Collaborate on Next-Generation Photomask Technology by Kenneth A. Rygler Published in Channel Magazine, Feb./Mar. 1997 The increasing complexity and shrinking geometries of today's submicron circuit designs are placing new demands on virtually all aspects of the semiconductor fabrication process. Nowhere are these demands more stringent than in the development of next-generation photomasks. To meet these demands, a group of forward-thinking semiconductor manufacturers have joined forces with DuPont Photomasks Inc. (DPI) to develop advanced photomask technologies for deep submicron design rules. Advanced Micro Devices, Micron Technology and Motorola will collaborate with DPI to build, equip and operate a $40 million, state-of-the-art center for advanced photomask development adjacent to DPI's existing photomask plant in Round Rock, Texas. The 17,000-square-foot stand-alone facility will include a 5,500-square-foot Class 1 Cleanroom housing a pilot production line for leading-edge photomask fabrication. The DPI Reticle Technology Center (RTC), which brings together leaders in microprocessors, memory and advanced logic design, reflects a growing trend in the increasingly challenging semiconductor fabrication industry to cooperate in the development and funding of advanced technological methodology. Engineers from all four companies will work together at the center, which will become the focal point for designing and testing new equipment platforms and advanced materials. In this way, the group will better ensure that photomask development will keep pace with deep submicron design demands in virtually all areas of circuit design. By bringing together leaders in a wide range of semiconductor engineering and process disciplines, the technology that is developed by the RTC will have ample breadth and depth to meet the broad needs of customers worldwide. Deep Submicron Demands As design rules of high-volume production circuits move below 0.35-micron geometries, lithographic tolerances become increasingly difficult to achieve. While the impressive development of innovative, new techniques and higher precision production equipment continue to provide solutions for packing more data into a shrinking piece of semiconductor real estate, the cost of "stepping up" to each successive generation of equipment adds a new element to the equation. Manufacturers need to squeeze more life out of current circuit designs and expensive semiconductor manufacturing and inspection equipment before moving up to purchase the next generation of tools. The mask technology developed at the RTC will enable its semiconductor members to expand the effectiveness of current and future optical lithography technology and extend the life of their investment in the latest in wafer stepper and other optical lithography tools. Examples of emerging techniques that do just that are various types of phase shift masks such as i-line phase shift and deep UV phase shift, as well as masks with aggressive optical proximity correction features. These and other approaches will form the focus of the RTC. State-of-the-Art Production Tools The RTC will take advantage of the latest in photomask development and production tools. Equipment to be housed in the center includes two pattern generators, an ALTA 3000 and a MEBES 4500. In addition, the RTC plans to install advanced processing, inspection, metrology, repair and cleaning equipment, providing the partners with a full array of next-generation tools for all aspects of photomask design, production and repair processes. Group Members DuPont Photomasks Inc. DPI is the world's leading supplier of photomasks. Operating globally from eight facilities in North America, Europe and Asia, DPI produces and supplies a wide array of photomasks as well as photoblanks and pellicles. Unquote.. TSO