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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (14271)	2/22/1998 3:03:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

For another source of information than Reuters on mutual fund cash positions, reaching back to 1989, see Marketgauge: marketgauge.com Of course you are right about the cash going into the money market funds, which would be available for investment in the market. But cash balances in mutual funds that are this low have usually pointed to a peak in the market.

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (14271)	2/22/1998 4:41:00 PM
From: paulmcg0	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

[Paul McGinnis is a puppet saying what he is told to say] Nobody tells me what to say -- I do a lot of research and also use what I've observed to make my own conclusions. (See, for example, my SI posting on how I was in Thailand last summer and actually saw the market collapse there.) Of course, I suppose you could always say that it is human nature to notice evidence that backs up one's conclusions and ignore contradictory viewpoints. For example, you might like this quote: "Thus, one should only hold less stocks than the average person if one is different from everyone else in some crucial way. It is not enough to be bearish, one must be more bearish than everyone else... To rationalize active portfolio strategies, such as pulling out of the market at times of high price ratios, you have to ask, who is there who is going to be more in the market than average now? And, what else are you going to do with the money?" You would not believe where that quote came from (and, no, it's not from Abby). That quote is from an academic paper by John Cochrane, titled "Where is the market going? Uncertain facts and novel theories" in the Nov./Dec. 1997 issue of Economic Perspectives, the journal of the Federal Reserve Bank in Chicago!! What happened to the Fed's "irrational exuberance" ?? If you want to read the full article in Adobe Acrobat format (the reader software is available for free at adobe.com ), try this link: frbchi.org (The author also does a statistical analysis of risk vs. reward in the markets and concludes that stock market returns will be lower but doesn't mention an impending market crash.) Paul McGinnis