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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SJS who wrote (12562)	2/23/1998 11:43:00 AM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

OK folks, Here's a link some one on the gold thread posted(thanks to them)... Falls right in line with my personal take.http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-258.html "The southern gulf monarchies also face serious internal problems. The fall in oil revenues has severely strained the region's cradle-to-grave welfare states. That economic pressure has tremendous political implications in countries where corrupt and authoritarian rulers have long relied on state largesse to pacify restive populations. Consequently, gulf monarchs face increasingly serious internal security threats--which often have a strong element of anti-Americanism, as recent attacks, such as the bombing of the U.S. military installation in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, have indicated." This is from 1996. Oil is much lower now and this is likely why they agreed to increase production...they are under pressure from within. Saudi Arabia is actually way in debt. Their "black gold" credit card is maxed out. Those that see the long term view see that oil is a precious commodity and most of it is located in the most volatile area in the world. Todays news with Iraq could be the complete oposite tomorrow. PK

To: SJS who wrote (12562)	2/23/1998 11:45:00 AM
From: waverider	Respond to of 95453

OSX may very well detach itself from the price of oil now, if it hasn't already today. My reasoning is simple: -many of the company's stock prices we follow are near or at replacement value for the equipment they own (Mike Simmons did an excellent analysis of this recently) -with today's news, most of our stocks are holding up well and do not seem to want to retest their lows (GLM and CDG come to mind) -long term contracts are long term contracts...for oil companies to cancel deep water drilling plans they would have to incur millions of dollars in cancellation fees -the market is a discounting mechanism...I am assuming here that all the bad news is out...therefore, our stock prices already reflect that oil will never be used again and all rigs will have to be shut down (can we say over-reaction?) -some big money has been coming in of late as posted here by way of SEC filings, volume movement, etc. We shall see...but since this is based on logic...well, we all know how the market is. Rick Hydrocarbon aka Diamond H

To: SJS who wrote (12562)	2/23/1998 11:50:00 AM
From: Thean	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 95453

Some of you guys are driving me nut. The drillers are not going up anytime soon and you guys are cheering it as if today is the last day to buy the drillers before it rockets up 100%. READ MY LIPS - IT'S AIN'T GOING TO HAPPEN ANYTIME SOON! The oil fundamentals have shifted - to the negative side ever since we have the oversupply issue. Oil price does not stay so low for no reason. I'm sure it will go up one day but are you willing to wait six months? TA is not very useful at this point - yes you heard it here from me the driller TA guy. One has to recognize periods within which TA is very predictive and periods when it is less. We are in a period where it is LESS predictive. The leading indicator is crude price - yes and not natural gas price either. There are better places to go long other than the drillers. Yes, you heard that right. Unless you are a trader, your money may be stuck for a long time. And all this while, stocks at other companies soar. Why not come back when you have made some easier dough some place else first? Wake up people, be nimble. Think in terms of risk-reward. Don't think in terms of fundamentals or TA right now.