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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: robert b furman who wrote (23684)3/24/2025 6:56:46 PM
From: #Breeze  Respond to of 26871
 
"The Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) crisis was triggered by a combination of factors in global financial markets, particularly the Russian debt default in August 1998, which led to a "flight to liquidity" and widening spreads in fixed-income markets, ultimately causing LTCM's highly leveraged positions to fail."



To: robert b furman who wrote (23684)3/27/2025 10:49:17 AM
From: Kirk ©1 Recommendation

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  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 26871
 
Clearly the UAW and Cramer like tariffs to make imports much more expensive.

Will tariffs help or destroy GM & Ford and US economy in the short term? I believe Tesla will benefit because it uses far fewer moving parts to build their cars so it is easier to move manufacturing to the US that is not ALREADY there in gigafactories.

I axed Grok:
What is the current tariff schedule for autos? I read "President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on automobile imports on Wednesday. A 25% tariff will be imposed on all vehicles not manufactured in the United States, effective on April 2. The tariffs will initially start at 2.5% and gradually increase to 25%."

Answer:
Based on the information available as of March 27, 2025, the current tariff schedule for automobiles in the United States reflects both existing tariffs and the newly announced changes by President Donald Trump. Here's a breakdown of the situation:

Prior to the new announcement, the U.S. imposed a 2.5% tariff on imported passenger cars and a 25% tariff on imported pickup trucks from countries other than Mexico and Canada, as part of its standard trade policy. These rates have been in place for some time, with the higher rate on pickup trucks notably benefiting domestic manufacturers.

On Wednesday, March 26, 2025, President Trump announced a significant update to this schedule. Starting April 2, 2025, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all vehicles not manufactured in the United States, with collection beginning April 3, 2025. Reports indicate that this tariff will apply to imported passenger vehicles (such as sedans, SUVs, crossovers, minivans, and cargo vans) and light trucks, as well as key automobile parts like engines, transmissions, powertrain parts, and electrical components. The White House has clarified that this 25% rate will be in addition to existing duties in some cases, though specifics can vary.

Regarding your specific reference to the tariffs "initially starting at 2.5% and gradually increasing to 25%," this appears to align with some descriptions of the policy rollout. Trump mentioned starting with a "2.5% base" (the existing passenger car tariff) and moving to 25%, which could suggest a phased increase or simply a clarification that the new 25% rate replaces or builds upon the prior baseline for passenger vehicles. However, most sources indicate the 25% tariff takes effect immediately on April 2, 2025, for collection on April 3, without a gradual ramp-up period explicitly detailed in the proclamation. The lack of a clear, uniform timeline for a gradual increase in available reports suggests this might have been an initial framing by Trump that was later clarified to mean a direct jump to 25% for all non-U.S.-made vehicles.

There are nuances to this policy:
  • Vehicles and parts imported under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) may receive special consideration. The tariff might only apply to the value of non-U.S. content in these imports, with USMCA-compliant parts potentially remaining tariff-free until a process is established by the Commerce Department and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to assess non-U.S. content. This process could extend the timeline for full implementation on auto parts to no later than May 3, 2025.

  • The policy aims to strengthen U.S. manufacturing, with an estimated $100 billion in annual revenue projected from these tariffs.
In summary, as of April 2, 2025, the tariff schedule for automobiles will shift to a 25% rate on all vehicles not manufactured in the U.S., replacing or supplementing the prior 2.5% rate on passenger cars and aligning with the existing 25% rate on pickup trucks for non-USMCA countries. The transition appears to be immediate rather than gradual, though implementation details for USMCA imports and auto parts may evolve over the coming weeks. For the most precise and up-to-date schedule, further clarification from the White House or a Federal Register notice would be needed post-April 2, 2025.

Follow-up:


https://x.com/i/grok/share/0rlrS6UJxNVBkz3RSFEJXRsTG
Where are Tesla motors manufactured?
In summary, Tesla motors are manufactured at the Fremont Factory (California), Gigafactory Nevada (Nevada), Gigafactory Shanghai (China), Gigafactory Texas (Texas), and Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg (Germany)
, with each site tailored to specific models and regional demands. This distributed production strategy supports Tesla’s mission to scale electric vehicle output globally.