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To: Vattila who wrote (66742)	5/6/2025 9:03:44 PM
From: rzborusa	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 72122

I'm delighted to be so wrong. Does Trump hate Canada cause Melania showed affection to PM ? cnn.com google.com

To: Vattila who wrote (66742)	5/6/2025 10:48:51 PM
From: neolib	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 72122

Thanks for running the contest once again, and yes very nice to see AMD guide better than what I feared. Now I hope the AI event on June 12 provides some clear indication of rack scale solutions from AMD.

To: Vattila who wrote (66742)

7/6/2025 12:11:44 AM

From: Vattila

Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 72122

AMD 2025-Q2 EPS Contest (non-GAAP)

User	EPS	Revenue	Outlook
Bing Copilot	$0.53	$7.35B	$8.00B
Grok	$0.50	$7.40B	$7.80B
Joe NYC	-	-	-
Kelvin C.P. Wang	-	-	-
neolib	-	-	-
Pravin Kamdar	-	-	-
rzborusa	-	-	-
TGPTNDR	-	-	-
Vattila	$0.47	$7.40B	$8.20B
Zacks Estimate	$0.54	$7.41B	$8.14B

Let's kick off the contest early this quarter, as we enter 2025-H2, which looks to be an exciting period for AMD's rebooted growth, as they establish themselves as the (only) viable second-source in the AI GPU market, chasing down Nvidia in Su and Papermaster's tried-and-tested relentless roadmap execution style.

I have a quite positive outlook (though still below Zacks' high estimate at $8.70B), in large part based on the fact that the Instinct MI350 series is plug-and-play compatible with existing MI300 solutions, and hence should see rapid uptake among existing hyperscaler customers.

Grok and Copilot are more cautious, pointing out the headwinds (China sales embargo, in particular).

Let me know your take. Post your numbers to participate!

Background Information

AMD's Q2 outlook: $7.40B ± 0.30B revenue
AMD: Detailed Earnings Estimates - Zacks.com

2025-Q1 results and scoreboards

Message #66742

To: Vattila who wrote (66742)

8/5/2025 7:13:35 PM

From: Vattila

Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 72122

AMD 2025-Q2 EPS Contest (non-GAAP) — Results

Reported Results:		$0.48	$7.69B	$8.70B ± 0.30B
Rank	User	EPS	Revenue	Outlook
1	Vattila	$0.48	$7.50B	$8.30B
-	Grok	$0.48	$7.43B	$8.30B
2	Pravin Kamdar	$0.47	$7.45B	$8.40B
-	Zacks Estimate	$0.47	$7.41B	$8.18B
3	rzborusa	$0.49	$7.37B	$8.23B
4	neolib	$0.52	$7.55B	$8.50B
5	Kelvin C.P. Wang	$0.52	$7.50B	$8.20B
6	Joe NYC	$0.53	$7.55B	$8.40B
-	Bing Copilot	$0.53	$7.35B	$8.00B

Great! I booked another win; my fourth since 2020, when we established current contest rules. Only Rzborusa and Pravin have more wins; 6 and 5, respectively (see records). Pravin comes in second (after Grok's unranked entry), and Rzborusa secures third place (up from bottom position in the Q1 contest round, which is a pretty decent improvement!).

Meanwhile, Neolib did best overall, with his optimistic forecast coming closest to the actual stellar outlook reported. Joe and Pravin had the second and third best overall score, respectively.

On the full-year leaderboard, Joe is back on top, overtaking Kelvin, with Neolib in third place. All three beat Zacks and the AI bots nicely, while the rest of us are trailing somewhat.

Thanks to all for playing!

---

Scoreboards

Note that, unlike the main EPS Contest, which is primarily ranked by EPS, these boards are ranked by overall score, which is an equally weighted average of subscores. Scores are calculated as (1+error)^-2 per quarter and normalized for the year by sum(scores)/4. The squaring of the denominator in the score calculation is just done to spread out the scores a little. There is no explicit relative weighting of EPS and revenue error, i.e. a 1 cent error in EPS equals a $10M error in revenue.

AMD 2025 EPS Contest Scores

2025	Leaderboard

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	Joe NYC	2	0.48	0.38	0.32	0.3943
2	Kelvin C.P. Wang	2	0.48	0.34	0.36	0.3922
3	neolib	2	0.48	0.37	0.27	0.3721
-	Zacks Estimate	2	0.48	0.30	0.33	0.3706
-	Grok	2	0.49	0.30	0.31	0.3666
-	Bing Copilot	2	0.47	0.28	0.31	0.3543
4	Vattila	2	0.49	0.32	0.26	0.3537
5	rzborusa	2	0.48	0.27	0.24	0.3323
6	Pravin Kamdar	1	0.25	0.16	0.15	0.1852

2025	Quarterly average

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	Joe NYC	2	0.95	0.77	0.64	0.7887
2	Kelvin C.P. Wang	2	0.95	0.68	0.72	0.7843
3	neolib	2	0.95	0.74	0.54	0.7443
-	Zacks Estimate	2	0.96	0.59	0.67	0.7412
4	Pravin Kamdar	1	0.98	0.65	0.59	0.7408
-	Grok	2	0.97	0.60	0.63	0.7333
-	Bing Copilot	2	0.93	0.57	0.63	0.7087
5	Vattila	2	0.98	0.63	0.51	0.7074
6	rzborusa	2	0.96	0.55	0.49	0.6646

AMD 2024 EPS Contest Scores

2024 Full year scores

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	Joe NYC	4	0.94	0.85	0.86	0.8830
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.97	0.82	0.86	0.8810
2	neolib	4	0.98	0.88	0.78	0.8798
-	Bing Copilot	4	0.95	0.80	0.78	0.8447
3	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.97	0.85	0.72	0.8439
4	rzborusa	4	0.94	0.87	0.68	0.8315
5	Kelvin C.P. Wang	4	0.97	0.87	0.55	0.7973
6	Vattila	4	0.94	0.86	0.56	0.7890

2024 Quarterly average

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	Joe NYC	4	0.94	0.85	0.86	0.8830
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.97	0.82	0.86	0.8810
2	neolib	4	0.98	0.88	0.78	0.8798
-	Bing Copilot	4	0.95	0.80	0.78	0.8447
3	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.97	0.85	0.72	0.8439
4	rzborusa	4	0.94	0.87	0.68	0.8315
5	Kelvin C.P. Wang	4	0.97	0.87	0.55	0.7973
6	Vattila	4	0.94	0.86	0.56	0.7890
7	TGPTNDR	1	0.89	0.77	0.28	0.6455

AMD 2023 EPS Contest Scores

2023 Full year scores

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.97	0.89	0.66	0.8390
1	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.94	0.88	0.56	0.7938
2	Vattila	4	0.98	0.89	0.46	0.7759
3	neolib	4	0.96	0.80	0.56	0.7735
-	Bing Chat	4	0.94	0.83	0.47	0.7457
4	Joe NYC	4	0.95	0.80	0.46	0.7375
5	rzborusa	4	0.95	0.81	0.41	0.7220
6	Kelvin C.P. Wang	4	0.95	0.74	0.37	0.6850

AMD 2022 EPS Contest Scores

2022 Full year scores

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.92	0.83	0.62	0.7895
1	Joe NYC	4	0.82	0.72	0.75	0.7618
2	neolib	4	0.90	0.73	0.65	0.7617
3	Vattila	4	0.87	0.84	0.51	0.7390
4	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.81	0.71	0.69	0.7371
5	rzborusa	4	0.81	0.73	0.56	0.7020
6	Kelvin C.P. Wang	4	0.84	0.75	0.48	0.6925
7	gvatty	2	0.48	0.38	0.30	0.3848
8	fastpathguru	1	0.15	0.10	0.06	0.1038

2022 Quarterly average

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.92	0.83	0.62	0.7895
1	gvatty	2	0.95	0.75	0.60	0.7696
2	Joe NYC	4	0.82	0.72	0.75	0.7618
3	neolib	4	0.90	0.73	0.65	0.7617
4	Vattila	4	0.87	0.84	0.51	0.7390
5	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.81	0.71	0.69	0.7371
6	rzborusa	4	0.81	0.73	0.56	0.7020
7	Kelvin C.P. Wang	4	0.84	0.75	0.48	0.6925
8	fastpathguru	1	0.59	0.42	0.24	0.4153

AMD 2021 EPS Contest Scores

2021 Full year scores

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	Kelvin C.P. Wang	4	0.93	0.86	0.72	0.8397
2	Joe NYC	4	0.94	0.88	0.69	0.8367
3	rzborusa	4	0.95	0.78	0.70	0.8105
4	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.93	0.75	0.75	0.8101
5	gvatty	4	0.93	0.81	0.69	0.8068
6	Vattila	4	0.92	0.77	0.71	0.7966
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.83	0.65	0.53	0.6694
7	neolib	3	0.71	0.66	0.61	0.6614
8	engineer	1	0.24	0.18	0.21	0.2111
9	fastpathguru	1	0.23	0.18	0.15	0.1852
10	eetnoyer	1	0.20	0.17	0.10	0.1556

2021 Quarterly average

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	neolib	3	0.95	0.88	0.82	0.8819
2	engineer	1	0.96	0.73	0.84	0.8445
3	Kelvin C.P. Wang	4	0.93	0.86	0.72	0.8397
4	Joe NYC	4	0.94	0.88	0.69	0.8367
5	rzborusa	4	0.95	0.78	0.70	0.8105
6	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.93	0.75	0.75	0.8101
7	gvatty	4	0.93	0.81	0.69	0.8068
8	Vattila	4	0.92	0.77	0.71	0.7966
9	fastpathguru	1	0.92	0.71	0.59	0.7408
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.83	0.65	0.53	0.6694
10	eetnoyer	1	0.78	0.68	0.40	0.6222

AMD 2020 EPS Contest Scores

2020 Full year scores

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	Vattila	4	0.95	0.85	0.65	0.8169
2	neolib	4	0.98	0.80	0.61	0.7972
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.94	0.79	0.62	0.7856
3	Pravin Kamdar	3	0.72	0.62	0.50	0.6128
4	rzborusa	3	0.69	0.57	0.47	0.5812
5	Kelvin C.P. Wang	1	0.24	0.23	0.17	0.2150
6	jc474	1	0.23	0.19	0.19	0.2020

2020 Quarterly average

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	Kelvin C.P. Wang	1	0.96	0.92	0.69	0.8601
2	Pravin Kamdar	3	0.96	0.83	0.66	0.8171
3	Vattila	4	0.95	0.85	0.65	0.8169
4	jc474	1	0.92	0.74	0.76	0.8080
5	neolib	4	0.98	0.80	0.61	0.7972
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.94	0.79	0.62	0.7856
6	rzborusa	3	0.93	0.76	0.63	0.7749