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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (8825)	2/24/1998 8:55:00 AM
From: Sawtooth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Ramsey: <<After digesting all the news yesterday, I am actually a little pissed off at management. Though the Korean cancellation could be filed under the unexpected category, the press releases yesterday did not just come out from thin air. They certainly knew of the product introductions and the pending contracts two weeks ago. Instead of creating a panic, they could easily issue some guidance now and smooth out the bumps. The net results of the new contracts and the cancellations are positive. >> This was the point of my post yesterday. It may be their "style" to heap a haystack of announcements out at (literally) one time, but strategic release over time may have been more beneficial, net. Have a nice vacation. ...Tim

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (8825)	2/24/1998 10:29:00 AM
From: JMD	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

Ramsey, I spent some time recently with a guy whom I will identify as a Korean expert. Can't say more. His brother now will not drive his Mercedes to downtown Seoul but rather leaves it parked in the garage because wealth displays stir resentment. He takes his wife's less expensive car instead. Smaller merchants refer to their current business operating mode as the "death watch" because all they are trying to do is stay in business until things turn around. Yes, cell phones are considered wealth displays. People still use them but almost "hide"--a ton of cancellations. The head of the whole labor shebang for the nation has his head here: don't force me to accept voluntary firings as an OFFICIAL POLICY. The reality is they are happening anyway, and on a significant scale. Just don't rub my 'political nose' in it. Resentment of foreign companies moving in to buy up Korean companies on the cheap not as high as one might suspect--recognition that "we're in a pickle and this is one of the necessary steps" very strong. In general, crisis is recognized (no Japanese head in sand) and willingness to make decisions NOW. Conversations at highest levels of government: internal estimate of time required to re-build economy: EIGHT YEARS. Major arbitrage now happening in Korea: used cars. There is no market for cars (even before crisis, high gas and other restrictions were being put on car use), lots of dumping. Cars are being purchased for 'nothing' and taken to China for re-sale. With regard to corruption among chaebols. When the decision was made to kick start Korea's economy, it was decided to follow the Japanese model with significant cooperation between government and industry. How do you compete in a world market in steel, DRAMs, etc. unless you start off with a massive plant? You don't, so to start from nothing the government made the capital available because no private market existed or would have taken that risk if it did. So far, no corruption and perfectly reasonable economic plan. Results speak for themselves. However, there is no party system for raising money in Korea. So if I want to be an opposition candidate, I can't set up a PAC or run on the Democratic ticket against the Republican ticket. Where's the political dough come from? The banks, which though ostensibly private are in fact quasi-governmental institutions. So here's the deal. I go to bank X and ask for a loan to start a fab plant. Fab plants are on the national agenda so it's cool. I get $750 million conditioned on maybe 20% being 'recycled' to the politica machinery. So I as a businessman am carrying $750MM debt on the books but only 80% of the loan went into the bricks and mortar. Worse, everybody agrees that these 'banker-politicians' have no market sense, i.e., they're making loans cause it keeps them in the political business not because the projects for which the dollars are being lent make sense. Until now they didn't bear the risk of loss so there was no market discipline. Fortunately, most of the money went for damn good infrastructure (i.e., fab plants instead of condos) but still, too many fab plants. So, the national agenda is to get the government out of the financial institutions cause that's where the mess is. And that is exactly where the IMF is pointed--VERY touchy, sensitive stuff. His sense: Korea will make it. Very, very bad situation but mitigated by immediate coming to grips and incredible work ethic. He is not an 'all Asia' expert--just Korea. But, FWIW, having just returned from that neck of the woods, word is Indonesia is toast. Mike Doyle

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (8825)	2/24/1998 10:31:00 AM
From: qdog	Respond to of 152472

I was just headed out the door when I decided to check SI one more time. I seriuosly take such indicators as the Greespan brief case and the Sun Su Bear Claw eating indicators. You all have been warned!!-:) Ramsey we both have been following this company for somtime now. They are not one to disclose anything until it is fact. Korea wasn't forecasted but when it happen the company bellied up to the bar a was forthright. This is much the same. Until they were confident of the product, they announced it at the appropriate time. Look at all the announcements at this trade show from others.