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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: robert b furman who wrote (24757)6/12/2025 11:28:31 AM
From: Kirk ©  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 26759
 
We'll see.

If tariffs are just a stick to get full, open and real free trade, then it is a good thing, but I don't see that ever really happening. Governments will subsidize industries that they think will give them some sort of advantage in exchange for bribes (campaign contributions, doing DOGE for free, etc.) to stay in power.

Why not make it a calculus problem?

That is if 50% tariffs are good, why not make them 1,000% and essentially turn off ALL imports and make everything ourselves? Perhaps in 100 years when we have robots to do the grunt work done my nearly slave labor overseas it will be possible.

I'd still like to see very low or zero corporate income tax and perhaps a 10% tariff on imports to make up for lost corporate taxes. Then companies would have incentive to move jobs back to the US where the tax on the worker's income would more than make up for the lost tariffs for what they make and the lost corporate tax.

The small tax on stock buybacks seems a good way to raise income at a time that doesn't hurt honest companies using their cash wisely.

I believe a 10% tariff will eventually be a hit to GDP or a hit to inflation but only as long as it takes for that jump to filter through the system. If it makes our deficit better, then interest rates should come down and we'd benefit from that and perhaps see a positive long-term. Of course, if the politicians spend the extra money, then it gets worse.

There are SO MANY unknown variables that I don't really believe any projection.



To: robert b furman who wrote (24757)6/12/2025 5:19:32 PM
From: #Breeze2 Recommendations

Recommended By
robert b furman
toccodolce

  Respond to of 26759
 
Bob, another factor that isn't consider are the currencies of the foreign countries that sell products in the US. China for example has devalued its currency when demand for its products drop. So I would look for China to devalue its currency again. This would have the net effect of watering down tariffs on its products.