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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (24812)	6/16/2025 10:32:14 PM
From: stuffbug	Respond to of 26800

I've owned royalty companies for years as income investments (capital gains only a consideration during major sell-offs). The 2 Canadian oil royalties are Prairie Sky and Freehold. Another U.S. royalty is Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP).

To: robert b furman who wrote (24812)	6/17/2025 8:58:48 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 26800

More roadblocks for EV manufacturing in the US. China-backed battery maker halts US expansion, putting BMW EV plans at risk Nuying Huang, Taipei; Elaine Chen, DIGITIMES Asia Tuesday 17 June 2025 AESC, a Chinese-owned lithium battery manufacturer operating in the US, has suspended its plans to expand production at a key battery facility due to mounting political uncertainty and heightened US-China trade tensions. The move has sparked concerns over a potential supply disruption for BMW's next-generation EVs, which rely heavily on AESC's battery cells. Industry insiders note that AESC, originally founded in 2007 as a joint venture between Japan's Nissan and NEC, was acquired by China's Envision Group in 2018. The company is widely recognized as the earliest—and still the only—China-linked battery maker to achieve large-scale lithium battery production in the US. Other Chinese battery manufacturers have struggled to gain a foothold. Gotion High-Tech suspended its US project midway, CATL has yet to materialize its operations on US soil despite licensing efforts, and BYD has failed to secure entry altogether—largely due to cost issues, political resistance, or both. AESC's three sites in the US Smyrna, Tennessee Its original facility focused on battery energy storage systems (BESS), with an annual capacity of 3 GWh. Bowling Green, Kentucky A new plant, built and expected to begin operations earlier this year, was planned to produce 30 GWh annually in EV battery cells. While delayed, the site remains active. Florence, South Carolina The most ambitious site—designed to deliver another 30 GWh—has now seen its expansion plans suspended due to financing roadblocks. The facility began construction in mid-2023 and was expected to provide battery modules to BMW's Mexico assembly plant. Sources say AESC's setback stems from multiple factors: not just its Chinese ownership, but the intensifying scrutiny under tightening US foreign investment policies and tariffs. The company reportedly faced difficulties importing critical Chinese-made equipment and materials, which are now increasingly targeted by US trade restrictions. US banks have also grown cautious. While battery manufacturers have historically secured financing based on MOUs with automakers like BMW, lenders are reportedly hesitant amid growing political headwinds. One key concern: the potential rollback of EV incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) with Trump's return to office. The president has expressed support for internal combustion vehicles and criticized EV subsidies—creating further uncertainty for long-term investment. Additionally, the Biden administration's previously tolerable 25% ceiling on Chinese ownership in the US. manufacturing ventures has reportedly tightened. Some industry observers suggest even a sub-5% Chinese stake may now trigger regulatory scrutiny—effectively pressuring Chinese firms to eliminate any visible ties. For BMW, the timing could prove critical. The German automaker plans to begin production of its Neue Klasse EVs in 2026 using cylindrical lithium-ion cells. Any change in suppliers could delay that timeline by up to 18 months due to the complex revalidation process required for battery integration. With Chinese firms sidelined, BMW and other automakers are increasingly turning to South Korean battery makers such as LG Energy Solution and SK On, considered more politically viable alternatives in the current environment. Whether AESC can resume its US expansion will likely depend on future US policy direction—particularly trade tariffs and the treatment of Chinese investment under the next administration. Article edited by Jack Wu digitimes.com