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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (92912)	6/27/2025 3:33:19 PM
From: ajtj99	1 Recommendation Recommended By Tweets Boar Hog Respond to of 96428

Here's a chart with US interest rates going back a couple hundred years showing peaks and troughs:

To: ajtj99 who wrote (92912)	6/27/2025 4:01:29 PM
From: Tweets Boar Hog	1 Recommendation Recommended By ajtj99 Respond to of 96428

You average those out, about 36 years. The most used cycle approach is bottom to bottom, what you have there is bottom to top, or top to bottom. A lot of folk get frustrated with cycles, cuz they don't always ring the bell at the bottom or top, i.e. they do not hit exactly. The cycles master says the 'orb', or error is +/- 1/6 of the cycle length. Pretty decent number on a 36 year cycle. Most of the time, unless we never saved, inflation should be beneficial to us older duffers. As I recall I got some some longer term 9 % CD's, when I was a young in, just started saving. Tweets

To: ajtj99 who wrote (92912)	6/27/2025 7:08:20 PM
From: Sun Tzu	2 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 jazzlover2 Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 96428

My theory is that the long cycles are related to human lifespan and fundamental technology shifts (they are interrelated). There is about a 35 years where a person is most productive (20 - 55). And as the lifespan increases (or technology shifts), so does this range. So yes, I do think there is a scientific reason for it. and it is measurable enough and predictable enough if you are willing not to chase the last penny.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (92912)	6/28/2025 12:11:40 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 96428

Very interesting. It would seem that these cycles might no longer apply in the modern world of central banking. A lot has changed in 70-80 years, the bond cycle period. Bernanke put prevents deflationary busts, so now debt tends to only increase into perpetuity until the Keynesian system breaks down. It would seem we are here. The gold standard was present in the USA in some form until 1971, today all currencies are printed at will and managed by central bankers with Phillips curve, thus debt tends to increase with asset prices into perpetuity. By the time we reached 1960s, the debt bubble from the Great Depression was already worked out through war spending. There wasn’t much government debt which allowed inflationary dynamics to take hold. Today countries tend to blow up via currency crises when Keynesian economy of Phillips curve management malfunctions, but the US dollar is too big for that.