To: Quad Sevens who wrote (11924 ) 2/24/1998 5:12:00 PM From: Jim Wilke Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 31646
Wade, I wouldn't downplay the significant "story" component in TAVA. I think it is a combination of education of the investing public about the embedded y2k problem (which has only recently been getting some decent exposure), along with the earnings announcements. I indicated long ago that I consider education as a key to the stock's performance. I believe this because without an education of what is going on, the general investor will not be savvy to why this company has a future greater than would be expected by any other systems integration firm. The earnings announcements are also essential because they show that TAVA can deliver the goods. I do believe that major contracts hold a measure of generating increased value for a while . But it seems that investors thrive with continuing announcements, not just occasional big announcements. Putting it another way, significant stories have a way of generating immediate interest for a short time, but they do not seem to produce the staying power that keeps the price aloft. Between the big announcements, the value begins to sag...and I think that is exactly what is happening now. As you well know, to some, the momentary highs and the subsequent lows are what investing is all about. But I am not of that camp. I invest for the long term, not the short. So perhaps your point is of some value to investors with a shorter time frame in mind for their investments. My guess is that the earnings announcement in 3rd quarter, which many have written will be for them a bell weather indicator, will be just the vehicle that will either justify a more permanent increased support level, or one which will send this stock's price back to whence it came. But you know, things can change. We may begin to see a continuous series of contract press releases, and I don't for a moment deny the effectiveness that would have on increasing and supporting the value. But I for one, do not expect such a continuous series of contract announcements, nor do I expect the investors to modify their fickle impatience. And so I look to the 3rd qtr earnings announcements to make some fundamental changes in the way people perceive this stock. - Jim