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Strategies & Market Trends : The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: elmatador who wrote (13632)7/30/2025 6:43:35 PM
From: Broken_Clock  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13771
 
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

It’s reshaping Indian policymakers’ views of the West and breeding resentment of their governments among its society...

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India’s former Permanent Representative to the UN Syed Akbaruddin recently published an informative opinion piece at NDTV titled “ Tariff Blitz: Is India Becoming Collateral Damage In Someone Else's War?

The gist is that the West, via Trump’s threatened 100% sanctions on Russia’s trading partners upon the expiry of his deadline to Putin for a ceasefire in Ukraine and the EU via its new sanctions barring the import of processed Russian oil products from third countries, is putting undue pressure on India.

They can’t defeat Russia on the battlefield by proxy, nor will they risk World War III by taking it on directly, so they’re going after its foreign trade partners in the hopes of eventually bankrupting the Kremlin.

This is counterproductive though since their threatened sanctions could torpedo bilateral ties, push India closer to China and Russia (thus possibly reviving the RIC core of BRICS and the SCO), and spike global oil prices, which hitherto remained manageable due to India’s massive imports from Russia.

Nevertheless, partial compliance is also possible due to the damage that Western sanctions could inflict on the Indian economy, so it can’t be ruled out that India might curtail its aforesaid imports and no longer export processed Russian oil products to the EU.

Full compliance is unlikely though since India would risk ruining its ties with Russia, with all that could entail as was touched upon here, while reducing its economic growth rate through higher energy prices and thus offsetting its envisaged Great Power rise.

Even in the scenario of partial compliance, however, Western pressure on India over Russia already backfired.

Their coercive threats and the very real consequences for no compliance whatsoever, presuming that exceptions can be made for partial compliance, are reshaping Indian policymakers’ views of the West and breeding resentment of their governments among its society. The “good ‘ole days” of naively assuming that the West operated in good faith and was India’s true friend will never return.

This is for the better from the perspective of India’s objective national interests since it’s more useful to have finally realized the truth than to keep having illusions about the West’s intentions and formulating policy based on that false perception. Conversely, this is for the worse from the perspective of the West’s hegemonic interests since their policymakers can no longer take for granted that India will naively go along with whatever they request and blindly trust its intentions. This new dynamic might lead to rivalry.

To be clear, India’s envisaged Great Power rise doesn’t pose a systemic challenge to the West like China’s superpower trajectory does, nor is it “disruptive” like the restoration of Russia’s Great Power status has been. India consistently sought to facilitate the global systemic transition to multipolarity by serving as a bridge between East and West, which complements the West’s objective interests, albeit while undermining its subjective hegemonic ones that are responsible for many of the Global South’s troubles.

Trying to subordinate India and then treating it as a rival when it doesn’t submit could therefore further destabilize this already chaotic transition, thus possibly leading to unforeseeable consequences that accelerate the decline of Western hegemony more than if the West treated India as an equal.

Pressuring India even more and then punishing it for lack of full compliance with their demands will only hasten this outcome. It’s unlikely to succeed in getting India to submit to them so they should abandon this policy.



To: elmatador who wrote (13632)8/1/2025 2:29:36 AM
From: nicewatch  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13771
 
Again, I agree with this somewhat but take it country by country, it's hardly monolithic as your green annotated map indicates. :-) Too many countries and corruption protocols dealing with them all, haha. You would need a small army of grifters, fixers, and lawyers just for a handful or two!

China has invested in many African and other countries as part of their New Silk Road but a lot of it is loans to build infrastructure with potential dual military use. Not that I blame them for doing that from their perspective.

Hasn't the quip always been Brazil is the country of the future? :-) Now the quip is Africa is the continent of the future? That's fine but are the roads, highways, and houses built fast enough? Are the resources being produced enough in a way that's at least an order of magnitude better than the Chinese controlled Cobalt mines in the DRC? For now Kenya seems a relatively safer place to watch this unfold.