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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: WTDEC who wrote (15812)	2/24/1998 9:33:00 PM
From: HerbertOtto	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 32384

wtd, About Andy's wine. Any LGND investors will probably have little wine left after that November to January experience. I found the Jan.29 re-test one of the most trying I've managed to survive without capitulating. It always makes me think of the Bill Burger Fund ads about Patience and Courage. He forgot to mention wine. Next we need the value of k, in the relationship: Top Stock price = k * ( years stuck in base prior to break-out ) * ( prior high price ) At least I think we need the value of k. Herbert

To: WTDEC who wrote (15812)	2/25/1998 7:50:00 AM
From: tonyt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

> What are the chances LGND is ready for a Dell-like move? If you're referring to LGND going up 400% in a year, it will never happen. Don't get greedy with LGND and you can make a ton of money. Sell into strenght, buy into weakness. Good Luck.

To: WTDEC who wrote (15812)	2/25/1998 8:43:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

wtd, I found the response to your question: <<> What are the chances LGND is ready for a Dell-like move? If you're referring to LGND going up 400% in a year, it will never happen. Don't get greedy with LGND and you can make a ton of money. Sell into strenght, buy into weakness.>> one of the most bizarre yet. Some posters like to use 20/20 hindsight to verify advise and sometimes investors are simply told to "look" at a move while it's happening. I don't follow DELL, but I took a look at its chart and I assume that the 400% gain refers to DELL moving from about $35 in Feb '97 to $130 in Feb '98. Of course looking at moves AFTER they happen is rather easy, and it's not that hard to see that LGND has already made a similar move, going from $5.50 in May '95 to $19.75 in May '96. Thus it would appear the strategy of selling into strength would have caused the investor to bail out of LGND long before it hit 19 3/4 or bailing from DELL long before it hit 130. Of course such a strategy would also apply to short term moves. DELL's move of last week was initially posted as up something like 3 1/2, which of course would have been a "sell into strength" signal. However, the price continued to move to up $11, which would have again been missed if the investor sold into strength when DELL was up 3 1/2 earlier in the day. Calling moves after the fact are fairly easy, but some strategies seem to fly in the face of quoted examples. If you really want to make money, simply pick up any financial publication and look for volatile stocks (big difference between 52-week high and 52-week low). Next buy at the 52-week low, and sell at the 52-week high. I guarantee a handsome return if the above strategy is followed.

To: WTDEC who wrote (15812)	2/25/1998 9:09:00 AM
From: tonyt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Seems some of our threadsters beleive that LGND at $72 by this time next year is possible. What's your thoughts on a move this huge? BTW, someone also said "Calling moves after the fact are fairly easy" -- so I take this as a complement from our 'threadster' since I called LGND's move before the fact. P.S. since "LGND has already made a similar move, going from $5.50 in May '95 to $19.75 in May '96" isn't it odd that there has been substaintial news from Ligand (including a mega-deal) since May '96, and yet LGND has a problem staying above $15?

To: WTDEC who wrote (15812)	2/25/1998 11:23:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 32384

wtd, Predictions that LGND will go up and down are usually accurate part of the time. Pointing out that LGND has already made a 400% move indicates that those who say it will "never" happen really are clueless. Exactly when such a move will happen is very hard to call. I don't think anyone has said that it would begin today. Actually a 4 fold move from LGND's recent low of 10 something isn't that far away from my prediction that LGND would hit $30 by the end of the summer and such a move would be truly remarkable because Biotechs should really aren't supposed to begin such a move until "August". Since we were recently to to "look" at DELL last week when it was around $115, are we supposed to expect it to hit $450 in the next 52 weeks? Actually, knowing when to "sell into strength" can be difficult. I was actually asked to comment on AMLN's Phase III data several months ago. At the time, LGND and AMLN were both trading at about $15. The press release had come out showing marginal improvement for Prmalintide treatment of Type I diabetics (about 10% of the market), and a failure to demonstrate benefits for type II (about 90% of the market). Since Pramlintide was AMLN's only real product, such results were almost sure to be view negatively (since it was expected to be useful for type I and II). I was surprised to see posts on the AMLN board (AFTER the press relase) suggesting than AMLN would open above $20 on following Monday. Over that weekend I expressed reservations about such an interpretation and gave reasons why the price would tank at the open. Not surprisingly, most of the AMLN investors didn't really want to hear such predictions. AMLN did tank to $9 which I guess would have been a great "buy on weakness signal". I'm not sure what AMLN investors did that Monday morning with regard to their AMLN holdings. However, several soon showed up on the LGND thread, making predicts about LGND's demise. Those who bought AMLN at $9 on weakness would soon see their investment cut in half and would be still waiting for that "sell on strength" signal. I guess why they are waiting, they can continue to make predictions about LGND's fall "below $10" or comment on LGND's "weakness". All in all, such predictions are quite remarkable in view of recent historical price movements.

To: WTDEC who wrote (15812)	2/25/1998 12:09:00 PM
From: tonyt	Respond to of 32384

> Pointing out that LGND has already made a 400% move indicates that > those who say it will "never" happen really are clueless Since Ligand never moved 400% ever, (let alone in a single year), it looks like those making these statements are either bad at math, or "Clueless" exchange2000.com