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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (10211)	9/28/2025 10:15:03 AM
From: sixty2nds	1 Recommendation Recommended By Sun Tzu Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10550

In my mind Copper is very muddy water. In looking over the world of commodities I ruled out agriculture pretty fast. IMO the Bottom line is the ags are weather dependent. That means I'd have to get "lucky" AND Get lucky multiple seasons. THAT Looks like Russian Roulette with bullets in 3 of 6 chambers. Copper... The fact IS the world needs Electricity. FCX is an interesting company. I liked the volatility BUT When you start looking at copper production IMO there is a problem with jurisdiction. I chose to avoid the possible trouble spots. I did not find a copper play I liked. <<< I would say that the reason there are so few rich people in commodities is not so much that market participants trade the position, but rather that commodities are don't generally go anywhere and are meant to be trading commodities rather than investments.>>> I agree. <<<Additionally, they are very volatile and you are typically competing with the producers who have much deeper knowledge of the market than others could hope to have.>>> Yes. <<<Just about the only sure fire way I have found to make money in commodities (as an outsider) has been to average down when the price of the commodity is below its production and wait until the inventories are exhausted.>>> This is exactly what the lifers in Commodities do. I'm speaking of Rick Rule, Ross Beaty, Leigh Goehring and Adam Rozencwajg, and others. Rick Rule sums it up best. "I love hate" <<<This is a lot harder than it sounds as anyone who bought and waited for silver to take off can attest to. But if you look, every few years you will some commodity that meets the criteria.>>> Maybe it is a lot harder because of "internet time" The pace is A LOT faster than say pre 2007, birth of the iPhone era. Silver... This is another commodity I ruled out. I might be wrong but I suspect the demand forecasts are too high. Why? A LOT of silver is used in solar panel production. I have not seen any big new solar projects approved for a while. Recycling solar panels will eventually increase supply. Jurisdiction is also an issue for me. EQX has a large mine, Los Filos in Mexico. Los Filos has a long history of problems. Example... Currently Los Filos is in "Care and Maintenence" mode ie No production. Why? The local, state and national gov't has approved a new 10 year labor contract. 2 of the 3 tribes that own the land have approved. 1 tribe has has said pound sand. A LOT of Silver is produced in Mexico. I don't want more exposure there than I already have. Enjoy the day! 60