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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (10273)	10/8/2025 2:35:11 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 10522

Thank you. I appreciate the heads up.

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (10273)	10/8/2025 2:46:46 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 10522

Investing in unprofitable companies is a very poorly understood methodology. Most people are familiar with the DCF model of valuing stocks because it is a well formulated framework. But DCF only applies to we established companies with good visibility into their business model and market forces. AMZN for example was an unprofitable business for a very long time even as they were a dominating force in their industry. I think they didn't show any profits for 20 years or so because they kept investing all they had into their business. They were best valued per ROIC. Other unprofitable businesses are different. Google in its early days is a better model for unprofitable AI. You can also price them similarly to how unprofitable biotechs should be priced. For those who want to be value investors, they need to find "value" companies in the right industries. Not every company that is cheap qualifies, not even those that cheap for no good reason. Proper value companies are best priced per EV/EBITDA. On the whole I agree that many people will be hurt badly by the time that AI and quantum computing dust settles. Back in NK225 heydays the Japanese had a saying, "Fools are dancing on the streets. Greater fools are standing aside watching them." I was not experienced enough to understand those words during the dot-com bubble. But once I did, I said, "Please God, give me another Internet Bubble. I promise not to piss that one away!" Some prayers get granted <G>

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (10273)	10/8/2025 3:40:28 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10522

There's a bit of bait and switch in what she says. She is comparing comparing OpenAI and others to mature SAS enterprises. But as I said, the best comparison model of OpenAI and others are the early Google and similar companies. Goggle gives me email, search, online drive, etc and I've never had to pay a penny for it. Nonetheless Google grew to be one of the largest and most successful companies. The point I am making is that every thing that she said about OpenAI applies to Google in its early days and possibly to AWS. But she is right that this is the kind of business in which there can be only one dominating company in each niche. However, she did not do a good job of analyzing what niches OpenAI, Google, and Claude are going after. They each have very different businesses in mind. So broad brushing them all as "GenAI" is misleading.