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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (10321)10/11/2025 2:23:41 PM
From: Sun Tzu1 Recommendation

Recommended By
chip

  Respond to of 10550
 
That's a serious watch point, but not a cause for concern *yet*.

Vendor financing by itself doesn't make it a fake revenue. It only becomes a problem under two scenarios:

1. The vendor wants make quarterly revenue numbers and ends up recognizing revenue via end of quarter "promotions" or worse do what Xerox used to do and ship products without orders only to have the customer return it during the next quarter. This is relatively rare but can happen. And when it does, it's a flag to immediately short the stock and fight the tape for it.

2. The more common case is when the customer is no longer creditworthy but the finance department will keep extending the credit because there's an inherent conflict of interest between the financing department and the parent company. This one can drag on for a long time. GE was an example of it dragging on forever whereas Boston Chicken provides a more dramatic example. Nortel fell somewhere between the two.

.

Neither is a concern right now because all indications are that the demand for AI data centers is real. But when that demand softens, we will need to watch it carefully.



To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (10321)10/14/2025 9:18:37 AM
From: Sun Tzu1 Recommendation

Recommended By
sixty2nds

  Respond to of 10550
 
  • Oaktree Capital Management co-founder Howard Marks said he isn’t describing the AI trade as a “bubble” just yet. “The valuations are ... high but not crazy,” he told CNBC.

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He is saying the same thing that I have often said.

Marks is one of the few on Wall Street that I respect and would listen to and if had said it's a bubble, I would have taken notes.