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To: Sultan who wrote (10330)10/13/2025 2:24:25 PM
From: Sun Tzu2 Recommendations

Recommended By
nicewatch
sixty2nds

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10713
 
I first bought MP when it was 17+ (look way to the left of the chart). That was already a miss because the real entry was in the 10 - 12 range and I had missed a 50% gain.

But I was comfortable buying and holding the stock because I knew that the US wanted to diversify away from Chinese rare earth and MP was their main vehicle. This was public knowledge. What was not known was how it would come to a head. But that too was predictable because back in 1992 (and there after many Chinese leaders) repeated that the middle east has oil and China has rare minerals. The Chinese government had explicitly made the choice to make rare earths their strategic resource.

Anyways, leaving that aside, I didn't really have a reason to sell MP. I just added to it as it went up. My latest addition was on Sept 25 for $77

If I were to strictly follow my system, I should have sold it where the red marker is and then bought it again on the green marker soon after it. But at that time I was off the market doing my AI research.

The main point I am making here is there is no such thing as a stock that is too expensive to buy or too cheap to sell. Price is not a decider, trend and momentum are. If I had gone with the idea that it has climbed too high, then I would not have bought it first after it had gone up 50% or back in September when it had already gone up almost 4x from my entry and 7x from where I should have bought it. That September position is already up 25%.

PS I sold most of my BB today because the risk/rewards are on the edge, but I have reentry orders for when it looks better.

EDIT I missed posting the chart with the markers
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To: Sultan who wrote (10330)10/13/2025 2:36:10 PM
From: Sun Tzu  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10713
 
Re ALM - I am starting a position in it, even though it is already up 10x (same as MP, but much faster).

The problem with ALM is that it is very risky. They don't have the resources to justify their price. If they had raised money or the government was backing them up to dig up more holes in the ground, then it would have been better.

But I don't argue with the tape. I'm just saying to watch it carefully.