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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (10404)	10/24/2025 1:40:24 PM
From: Sun Tzu	1 Recommendation Recommended By sixty2nds Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10515

This chart illustrates what I mean by trend following. The markers show exactly where my idea of trend following gives buy and sell signals. The markers are not where I' actually buy or sell (they are close because trend is very high on my priority list) but the point here is to show the trend following concept. Green markers are where the price went above both trendlines and both trendlines are pointing upwards. Red markers are the opposite; the price went below both trendlines and they are pointing downwards. PS In both cases I would have bought where the green markers are, but I would have sold one bar sooner than where the red markers are. You need to look at the other elements of the chart to see why. .

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (10404)	10/24/2025 10:35:10 PM
From: Sun Tzu	2 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 sixty2nds Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10515

Upon looking that the SGMT chart I see a demonstration of another point that I talked about but did not highlight on the chart. At the red vertical marker I closed my position. This was a valid sell as I outlined the rules, but it was not a short sell because the red rail was still rising (albeit very gently). I just closed my position. However, if you look carefully, you will see that about 8 days later, the stock approached the red rail again and then it dropped. This demonstrates why you should not go against the rail. Because 80% of the times the stock will go back to it. You will be taking unjustified chances. However, at that point the stock was actually a short sell. I didn't short because frankly in a bull market it is not wise to short anything. And secondly, it is not wise to short a biotech unless bad news has been let out (in which case you are unlikely to beat the market to the punch anyway). But if this had been another stock, say a consumer staple or HMO or ... then it would have been a strong short candidate 8 days after the red vertical bar. The same rule applies to buying the stock at the green rail. You don't want to buy it while the green rail is falling. Of course, these are all based on the pure TA. If you happen to know the company or have deeper insights into the stock, then by all means do what your gut tells you to.

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (10404)	10/28/2025 9:43:16 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 10515

The stock market is fractal like, and so are my statistical models and tools. Below is the one minute chart of CCJ today. All the rules that I outlined for SGMT on the daily chart still apply. For example you still buy on strength near the green line and sell on weakness near the red and the blue rail still acts as an interim stop. The lower indicators still work the same as on the daily. Everything is the same, just faster...and a little noisier. This chart illustrates another point that I had not discussed before: Previous long stretches of rails often remain as valid support/resistance level. You can put a straight edge on the screen and see this for yourself. Often the "staircase" pattern here is that one green rail is at the same level as the previous red rail. This is not unlike a pattern that Q had realized with harmonic trading that stocks often returned to a failed pattern. This is true for the daily charts too, but the dailies are often too far apart to see this pattern as clearly as can on intraday charts. Also, this effect is stronger for intraday charts than on daily charts because there is less chance of the fundamentals to have shifted during this period.