To: sixty2nds who wrote (10409 ) 10/24/2025 7:58:22 PM From: Sun Tzu 2 RecommendationsRecommended By
Respond to I’m switching hats to central-bank gold analyst . Below is the practical playbook I use, plus the latest read on who’s buying/selling and at what pace—anchored to sources you can audit. Monthly official reserve filings (volume, not value) IMF IFS : country-reported “monetary gold” in tonnes/ounces; this is the core time series the World Gold Council (WGC) compiles. ( data.imf.org ) IMF Reserves/FX Liquidity Template (SDDS) : central banks/euro area publish “gold (including deposits/swaps)” with volume and valuation basis —lets you separate price effects from true transactions. ( IMF ) Cross-checks / primary disclosures Central bank press releases & reserve assets tables (e.g., NBP, MAS, ECB pages that implement the IMF template). ( nbp.pl ) WGC monthly “Central bank gold statistics” posts that reconcile IMF + central-bank data and flag revisions. These are the quickest consolidated reads. ( World Gold Council ) Context feeds Reuters/FT/major wires for month-to-date color and sizable single-country moves (e.g., PBoC, RBI). ( Reuters ) What to actually analyze (to avoid false “buys”) Tonnes vs valuation : an increase in the USD value of gold reserves says nothing—prices move. You want the tonnage line in the IMF template/IFS. ( IMF ) Swaps/deposits : the template discloses if gold is swapped or on deposit ; gross holdings can change without outright purchases. ( dsbb.imf.org ) Reporting lags/revisions : IFS data backfills and gets revised; WGC notes corrections (e.g., Indonesia). Use rolling 2–3-month windows before declaring trend breaks. ( World Gold Council ) Idiosyncrasies : some producers (e.g., Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan) source domestically; Russia often shows drawdowns tied to the mint/coin program rather than policy shifts. ( World Gold Council ) Best current estimates (latest confirmed months) Global pace July 2025 (rev.) : +11 tonnes net . ( World Gold Council ) August 2025 : +19 tonnes net (rebound vs July; broadly in line with Mar–Jun pace). Interpretation : buying has moderated from 2022–24 surges but remains positive despite record prices. ( World Gold Council ) September 2025 : not all reporters in yet. Known moves imply small net buying ; see China +1.2t and El Salvador +0.44t, with others pending monthly filings. Working range for Q3 net = ~35–45t (July+Aug confirmed 30t; September partial adds a few tonnes). ( World Gold Council ) Who bought/sold most recently (August data unless noted): Large 2025 policy signals Poland (NBP) : 2025 ytd top buyer (+67t) through Aug; paused recently after hitting a 20% gold share, then raised target to 30% —implies future buying subject to conditions. Total ~515t at end-Aug. ( World Gold Council ) India (RBI) : Holdings now ~880t ; 2025 YTD purchases slowed materially (Reuters: ~+4t Jan–Sep ) even as value surged on price—i.e., valuation, not volume , drove the USD jump. ( Business Standard ) Read on momentum (moderating vs accelerating) The net +19t in August and +11t in July confirm continued net accumulation , but at a moderated monthly clip vs the 2022–2024 1,000t-per-year era. High prices likely tactically cap volumes , not strategic intent. ( World Gold Council ) China keeps adding (smaller monthly lots), Poland signaled larger structural demand (30% target), and producer-buyers (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan) remain active—collectively consistent with ongoing, slower-paced buying . ( World Gold Council ) Data sources you should monitor (ranked for speed vs reliability) World Gold Council – Monthly Central Bank Gold Statistics (fastest consolidated view; sources: IMF + CBs; flags revisions). ( World Gold Council ) IMF IFS (official tonnage; country detail; lag/revisions). ( data.imf.org ) IMF Reserves/FX Liquidity Template (SDDS) and national implementations (to separate volume from valuation and detect swaps/deposits). ( IMF ) Central-bank reserve asset press releases/dashboards (NBP, MAS, ECB, etc.). ( nbp.pl ) Major wires for timely single-country developments (PBoC/RBI updates). ( Reuters ) Practical workflow (what I’d do each month) Pull WGC monthly and note net change + list of >1t movers; reconcile with IMF IFS . ( World Gold Council ) For any outliers, open the country’s IMF template/CB release to confirm ounces/tonnes and check for footnotes on swaps . ( IMF ) Maintain a running 3-month average —filters reporting noise and revision risk; declare “acceleration” only if avg is rising and composition isn’t dominated by one-offs (e.g., coin programs). ( World Gold Council ) Bottom line (as of Oct 24, 2025 ) Direction : still net buyers , but moderated pace. Latest confirmed net : +19t (Aug) after +11t (Jul) ; Sep partials imply low-double-digit net for Q3 overall. ( World Gold Council ) Key actors : Kazakhstan (largest Aug buyer), China (steady, smaller monthly adds incl. Sep), Poland (paused but raised target to 30% , telegraphing future demand), Turkey/Czech/Bulgaria/Ghana/Indonesia modest adds; Russia small structural sales tied to minting. ( World Gold Council ) If you want, I can stand up a lightweight tracker (country × month tonnage deltas, 12-month rolling sums, and a “price-adjusted” check against swaps) using the WGC posts + IMF template pages above.
