Market Snapshot
| Dow | 47631.79 | -74.37 | (-0.16%) | | Nasdaq | 23958.50 | +130.98 | (0.55%) | | SP 500 | 6890.58 | -0.30 | (0.00%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 811 | Dec 1949 | Vol 1.30 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 1424 | Dec 3280 | Vol 10.23 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Information Technology, Energy, Communication Services, Industrials |
| | Weak: Financials, Consumer Staples, Real Estate, Health Care, Materials, Consumer Discretionary |
Moving the Market
NVIDIA's (NVDA) rally continues to push the major averages to new record highs
FOMC delivered a widely expected 25-basis point rate cut
Major averages retreat after Fed Chair Powell says a further rate cut in December is far from a foregone conclusion
| NVIDIA rally fuels record highs, December rate-cut odds softenedexpectations
29-Oct-25 16:30 ET
Dow -74.37 at 47631.79, Nasdaq +130.98 at 23958.50, S&P -0.30 at 6890.58
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market had a rather eventful session, with NVIDIA's (NVDA 207.03, +6.00, +2.98%) rally pushing the S&P 500 (flat), Nasdaq Composite (+0.6%), and DJIA (-0.2%) to record highs shortly after the open. After the market's initial move, the major averages spent much of the session in a sideways drift leading into the FOMC decision this afternoon.
The decision to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% was widely expected and had little effect on the major averages. Fed Chair Powell's comments on the path for additional easing, however, prompted a sharp slide.
In particular, Mr. Powell noted that committee members hold differing views regarding another rate cut at the December meeting, saying, "A further reduction in policy rate in December is not a foregone conclusion, far from it."
The CME FedWatch tool now assigns a 65.9% probability to at least a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December 10 FOMC meeting, down from 90.9% yesterday.
The comments saw several S&P 500 sectors and the major averages move beneath their baselines in response. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rebounded and notched a record closing high, while the S&P 500 and DJIA failed to close above their baselines.
With much of the morning headline buzz centered around NVIDIA surpassing $5 trillion in market capitalization, it is not surprising that the information technology sector (+1.1%) finished as one of the best-performing S&P 500 sectors.
NVIDIA's strength also helped the PHLX Semiconductor Index finish 1.9% higher.
Elsewhere in the sector, Teradyne (TER 173.94, +29.56, +20.47%) and Seagate Tech (STX 265.62, +42.62, +19.11%) captured impressive gains after beating earnings expectations, with Western Digital (WDC 141.38, +16.46, +13.18%) trading higher in sympathy.
The communications services sector (+1.1%) finished with an identical gain, supported by a solid showing from Alphabet (GOOG 275.17, +6.74, +2.51%), which reports its earnings after the close.
Mega-caps once again provided an outsized contribution to the major averages, with the market-weighted S&P 500 (flat) decidedly outperforming the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (-1.1%).
Meta Platforms (META 751.67, +0.23, +0.03%) and Microsoft (MSFT 541.55, -0.52, -0.10%) are also set to report earnings after the close.
Elsewhere, the energy sector (+0.8%) captured a gain as crude oil futures settled today's session $0.30 higher (+0.5%) at $60.46 per barrel.
The industrials sector (+0.3%) captured a more modest gain, led by Caterpillar (CAT 585.78, +61.31, +11.69%) after a strong earnings beat.
As for today's laggards, there were some significant losses across the six S&P 500 sectors that retreated.
The real estate sector (-2.7%) widened its week-to-date loss as all but one of its components traded lower, while the consumer staples sector (-2.0%) saw every one of its constituents finish with a loss.
Meanwhile, the financials sector (-1.7%) faced pressure from Fiserv (FI 70.73, -55.44, -43.94%) after the company missed earnings expectations and slashed guidance, while an earnings miss from Smurfit Westrock plc (SW 37.84, -5.26, -12.20%) pushed the materials sector (-1.8%) lower.
Smaller-cap indices were also among today's laggards. The small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.9%) retreated sharply from record-high levels of its own following Fed Chair Powell's somewhat hawkish comments on a December rate cut. The S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.7%) faced a similar loss.
Ultimately, today's action demonstrated continued momentum in the AI trade and, in particular, the meteoric ascent of the market's largest company, NVIDIA. There were, however, some considerable pockets of weakness in the broader market, with softened expectations for further monetary policy easing providing an additional headwind to overlooked segments.
U.S. Treasuries also faced pressure in response to the market's reassessment of the Fed's policy path. The 2-year note yield settled up nine basis points to 3.58%, and the 10-year note yield settled up eight basis points to 4.06%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +24.1% YTD
- S&P 500: + 17.2% YTD
- DJIA: +12.0% YTD
- Russell 2000: +11.4% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +4.4% YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- Pending Home Sales were unchanged in September (Briefing.com consensus 1.2%) after increasing 4.2% (revised from 4.0%) in August.
- The weekly MBA Mortgage Index rose 7.1% after decreasing 0.3% a week ago. The Purchase Index was up 4.5% while the Refinance Index rose 9.3%.
Major averages mixed just before the close
29-Oct-25 15:30 ET
Dow -95.02 at 47611.14, Nasdaq +90.86 at 23918.38, S&P -7.00 at 6883.88
[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (+0.4%) has resurfaced above its baseline, while the S&P 500 (-0.2%) and DJIA (-0.3%) remain lower after Fed Chair Powell said that another rate cut in December is far from a foregone conclusion.
Five S&P 500 sectors hold gains, with the industrials (+0.2%) and utilities (+0.1%) reentering positive territory after sliding in response to Mr. Powell's comments.
Investors now look ahead to another important round of earnings releases after the close, which will feature reports from Alphabet (GOOG 273.90, +5.47, +2.04%), Meta Platforms (META 748.59, -2.85, -0.38%), and Microsoft (MSFT 539.29, -2.78, -0.51%).
Major averages move lower following Fed Chair Powell's commentary
29-Oct-25 15:00 ET
Dow -50.12 at 47656.04, Nasdaq +59.87 at 23887.39, S&P -7.07 at 6883.81
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%), and DJIA (-0.1%) are rebounding from session lows that followed commentary from Fed Chair Powell on the future path of monetary policy.
In particular, Mr. Powell noted that committee members hold differing views regarding another rate cut at the December meeting, saying, "A further reduction in policy rate in December is not a foregone conclusion, far from it."
The major averages dipped into negative territory as investors reacted to the notion that another rate cut in December may not be as much of a certainty as previously thought.
However, a rebound effort is underway, lifting the Nasdaq Composite back into positive territory while the S&P 500 and DJIA remain just beneath their flatlines.
Fed cuts rates by 25 bps, ends QT effective Dec. 1; markets little changed ahead of Powell remarks
29-Oct-25 14:30 ET
Dow +92.78 at 47798.94, Nasdaq +117.92 at 23945.44, S&P +8.77 at 6899.65
[BRIEFING.COM] Without the benefit of hearing directly from Fed Chair Powell (his press conference begins at 2:30 p.m. ET), we can say that there was little surprise in the decisions made at today's meeting.
The FOMC voted to cut the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, as expected. The vote was not unanimous (also expected). Fed Governor Miran preferred a 50-basis-point reduction (not surprising), while Kansas City Fed President Schmid preferred no cut at all (slightly surprising).
Separately, the Fed announced that it will end its quantitative tightening activity beginning on December 1. This news is not surprising, although there was some speculation that QT could end, effective immediately.
Beginning December 1, the Fed will roll over at auction all principal payments from its holdings of Treasury securities and agency securities into Treasury bills.
With respect to the policy directive, there was an acknowledgment that inflation "has moved up since earlier in the year and remained somewhat elevated." That was paired with an acknowledgment that "downside risks to employment rose in recent months." It was also said that "uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated."
None of that is surprising, and it sounds like an opening for Fed Chair Powell to sound non-committal about the Fed's next move while expressing some hope that government data will start flowing again to help the Fed make a better-informed policy decision.
We don't think that changes the market's prevailing view that another 25-basis-point cut will be made at the December FOMC meeting, but, again, that is without the benefit right now of hearing what Fed Chair Powell says at his press conference. The fed funds futures market currently assigns an 84.4% probability to another cut at the December meeting—down from 95.5% a week ago, but still a high probability.
Since the market hasn't found reason to be surprised thus far, its reaction to today's decision has been understandably muted since the FOMC decision became known.
The Nasdaq Composite is up 0.6%, the Russell 2000 is up 0.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.3%, and the S&P 500 is up 0.2%.
Nasdaq leads ahead of Fed decision; gold tops $4,000 on softer dollar, rate-cut bets
29-Oct-25 13:55 ET
Dow +135.44 at 47841.60, Nasdaq +142.97 at 23970.49, S&P +14.91 at 6905.79
[BRIEFING.COM] With about two hours to go the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+0.60%) holds the lead among the major averages; at the top of the hour the FOMC will make its policy decision, which is widely expected to result in another 25-basis point rate cut.
Gold futures settled $17.60 higher (+0.4%) at $4,000.70/oz, as traders positioned ahead of the Fed's expected rate cut and a softer dollar lifted demand for the metal. Lower Treasury yields and short-covering added support after prices briefly dipped below $4K earlier in the week.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is up less than +0.1% to $98.78.
CVS Health Hits 52-Wk High on Beat-and-Raise Q3 and Improving Insurance Performance (CVS)
CVS Health (CVS) is relatively flat after reporting its Q3 results, reaching a new 52-wk high earlier today. The company comfortably beat expectations on both the top-and-bottom line, with revenue increasing 7.8% to a record $102.87 bln. Notably, the company raised EPS guidance yet again to $6.55-6.65, marking the third consecutive upward revision.
- Health Care Benefits revenue increased 9% to $35.9 bln as Aetna's results improved and the segment returned to profitability with better Medicare Advantage execution and pricing resets.
- Health Services revenue increased 12% to $49.27 bln driven by strong specialty pharmacy and growth at Signify while Oak Street remained challenged, leading to slower clinic expansion and some closures.
- Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness revenue increased 12% to $36.21 bln with same-store pharmacy sales up nearly 17% and prescription volume up 9%, supporting further share gains even as reimbursement pressure persists.
- Medical costs remain elevated across the industry, though CVS said trends were modestly better than expected and its MBR improved yr/yr to 92.8%.
- Management highlighted solid momentum into year-end and a better setup for FY26 as insurance continues to recover, PBM contracts reprice, and care delivery profitability improves.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
This was another quarter of improvement for CVS, with insurance performance a clear positive. There's still work to do with elevated costs and care delivery challenges, but Aetna's progress and solid retail execution are encouraging. Three straight EPS beat-and-raises have helped boost investor sentiment around the turnaround story, but the market still wants to see durability, keeping the reaction more muted for now.
Boeing Clear Skies, Cloudy Future: Boeing’s Q3 Growth Soars, but 777X Hits More Turbulence (BA)
Boeing (BA) is trading lower following its Q3 report this morning. As expected, the company posted another large loss—its 17th consecutive quarterly loss—which was larger than expected due to a $4.9 bln non-cash charge. However, revenue rose a robust 30.4% yr/yr to $23.27 bln, topping expectations and was fueled by 160 commercial deliveries. This marked Boeing's third straight quarter of yr/yr revenue growth after four quarters of declines, as deliveries continue to ramp.
- Boeing achieved positive free cash flow for the first time since 4Q23, exceeding expectations and marking a key milestone for the company.
- The 737 program continues to gain traction, with the FAA allowing production to increase to 42/month from 38/month. While the ramp will take time, it signals improving stability and regulatory confidence.
- The 787 program remains on track, maintaining 7/month production and targeting 8/month soon. Boeing is also expanding its South Carolina site to meet strong global demand.
- The 777X program remains the main disappointment, as certification has been delayed again, pushing first delivery to 2027. While no major technical issues have emerged, the lengthy certification process continues to frustrate investors.
- The Defense, Space & Security (DSS) segment performed well, with revenue up 25% yr/yr to $6.90 bln and backlog rising to $76 bln, including 20% international orders.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
Boeing's Q3 results were a mix of clear progress and lingering challenges. The solid revenue growth, improving production cadence, and return to positive free cash flow are all steps in the right direction, signaling operational momentum and better execution. However, the repeated 777X delays and persistent losses keep the recovery story incomplete. We see Boeing gradually regaining altitude, but turbulence remains ahead as it works to rebuild investor trust, stabilize cash flow, and prove that its turnaround efforts can translate into consistent profitability.
Seagate Tech soars on blowout Q1 results, record margins, and strong AI-driven demand outlook (STX)
Seagate (STX) delivered a blowout start to fiscal 2026, comfortably beating 1Q26 targets on both the top and bottom line while setting new margin records -- and it followed with guidance that built on that momentum for 2Q26. Management emphasized that cloud customers are tightly contracting capacity through 2026 with visibility into 2027, and that AI-driven inferencing is materially increasing demand for high-capacity nearline drives.
- Non-GAAP EPS jumped 65% yr/yr to $2.61, while revenue rose 21% to $2.63 bln, comfortably above expectations and the high end of guidance.
- Shares are surging toward record highs and now up over 200% year-to-date, lifting peer Western Digital (WDC) ahead of its results tomorrow afternoon.
- STX guided 2Q26 EPS to $2.75, +/- $0.20, and revenue to $2.70 bln, +/- $100 mln, slightly above consensus at midpoints and consistent with its history of conservative forecasting.
- The company said nearline production is largely contracted through 2026 with visibility into 2027, citing rapid AI-related growth in unstructured data and inferencing workloads that drive high-capacity storage needs.
- Non-GAAP gross margin jumped to 40.1% from 33.3% last year, with 2Q guidance implying approximately 41% as mix shifts toward higher-capacity HAMR drives and cloud volumes scale.
- Mosaic HAMR traction continues, with five major cloud customers qualified, over 1 mln Mosaic drives shipped in September, and a roadmap to 44TB products in 2026 -- positioning HAMR to meaningfully contribute to FY26 revenue and margin expansion.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
STX’s Q1 report marks a meaningful inflection, pairing strong execution with structural demand visibility tied to cloud and AI workloads. Record margins and long-term capacity contracts into 2027 reinforce that this cycle is being driven by secular forces rather than traditional storage demand swings. The AI narrative -- particularly inferencing at scale -- appears to be translating into sustained exabyte growth and favorable mix. HAMR progress is no longer conceptual, with multi-hyperscaler qualification and early volume shipments signaling commercial readiness. While STX’s stock has already experienced a massive run, margin durability and HAMR economics could continue to justify premium valuation. Investors will be watching the cadence of broader enterprise recovery and the pace of HAMR volume ramps, but the setup heading into FY26 remains compelling.
Visa Posts Another Steady Quarter With Solid Volume Trends and Stable Consumer Backdrop (V)
Visa (V) is seeing a muted reaction after reporting its Q4 (Sep) results last night. The global payments network beat EPS estimates, though the upside was more modest than in previous quarters, while revenue was slightly above consensus, increasing 11.5% yr/yr to $10.72 bln.
- Global payments volume increased 9% yr/yr (+8% Q3) with cross-border volume up 11% and processed transactions up 10%, as cross-border e-commerce rose 13% and travel improved to 10%.
- US payments volume increased 8%, a touch better than Q3, with e-commerce outpacing face-to-face and both credit and debit up 8%, reflecting continued consumer resilience.
- Growth engines: Consumer Payments benefited from solid payment volumes and cross-border trends; CMS revenue increased 14% (CC) on commercial payments volume +10% (vs. +7% in Q3); Value-Added Services grew 25% to $3 bln, led by issuing solutions and card benefits.
- Stablecoin momentum continued, with linked Visa card spend up 4x yr/yr and monthly volume now running above a $2.5 bln annualized rate as settlement support expands.
- For FY26, Visa expects adjusted net revenue growth in the low double digits, consistent with the 11% pace achieved in FY25 on a nominal basis.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
This report demonstrated how Visa remains a strong and foundationally sound company with balanced growth and improving profitability. The read-through on consumer habits remained resilient, which is encouraging as the company heads into FY26. Management also sees growing uses for agentic commerce, adding longer-term optionality. Shares are seeing only a muted reaction, likely due to modest upside and an FY26 outlook that points to stability rather than acceleration. That's a good backdrop, just not one that ignites incremental enthusiasm today.
Booking Holdings Checks In with a Solid Quarter, But ADRs in US A Bit Soft (BKNG)
Booking Holdings (BKNG) is trading modestly lower despite the online travel reservation giant reporting big upside with its Q3 results last night. Both EPS and revenue came in well ahead of analyst expectations. However, the EPS upside was not as impressive as in recent quarters, and Q4 revenue growth guidance of +10-12% yr/yr landed roughly in-line with expectations. Since Q3 is BKNG's seasonally strongest quarter, the slightly more subdued upside may be disappointing investors.
- Room nights grew 8% yr/yr to 323 mln, consistent with Q2's +8% and Q1's +7% growth. This was solid given the tough comp from last year and exceeded the high end of guidance by nearly 3 percentage points.
- The upside was driven by an expansion of the booking window (period between making the reservation and check-in), which pulled some demand forward into Q3.
- Room night growth was broad-based across all major regions: Europe and the US up high single digits, and Asia and Rest of World up low double digits.
- Certain travel corridors, such as Canada--Mexico and Europe--Asia, saw robust growth, offsetting softer inbound US demand.
- In the US, average daily rates (ADRs) were slightly lower and length of stay was shorter yr/yr, suggesting some ongoing consumer caution in discretionary travel spending.
- For Q4, BKNG expects room night growth of +4-6%, reflecting a moderation from Q3 as the booking window returns to more typical patterns.
- Management noted that global leisure travel demand remains stable, though macro and geopolitical uncertainty persist.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
While BKNG delivered another fundamentally strong quarter, the bar was simply set too high. After several periods of significant beats, Q3's more modest beat and moderation in room night growth left investors wanting more. The softening ADRs and cautious tone around inbound US travel may also be weighing on sentiment. Still, BKNG's strong geographic diversification and resilient travel trends should underpin steady performance into 2025. At roughly 18x forward earnings, valuation remains reasonable, but upside may be capped in the near term until growth reaccelerates or guidance improves.
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