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To: Qone0 who wrote (41387)	10/29/2025 9:44:45 AM
From: skinowski	1 Recommendation Recommended By accountant Respond to of 41391

You’re right. The phenomenon of an index hanging out above an upper BB when coming out of a 50%+ Bear may be different than if it happens after a powerful rally to new all time highs. In an academic sense, very many such studies are clearly guilty of data mining, curve fitting, using home cooked statistics - and other such sins. I tend to see them as something “fuzzy” - more, shall we say, as qualitative than quantitative in nature. But, often enough, they still say worthwhile things. I think in a 100 or a 1000 years there will still be NO strict reliable statistics about market behavior. At best, there will be fuzzy, probabilistic suggestions. Why? Because Mr Market couldn’t survive anyone discovering a reliable “key” to its behavior. Money would quickly flow in the direction of the owners of such a “key” - and markets would become too unfair and treacherous. Market MUST remain unpredictable - and capable of inflicting bloody punishment on anyone arrogant enough to think they… always have all the aces.