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Strategies & Market Trends : Bear! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harshu Vyas who wrote (266)	11/1/2025 5:49:59 PM
From: Sean Collett	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 291

You can go back to 1995-1999 and see folks writing about the equity bubble. Difference today is the wide access to social media so seems more in your face. Even if everyone can see the outcome, human nature is human nature and most just can't help themselves. I think of this writing from Harry Schultz: “Some readers may not know that for hundreds of years people have been saying, at certain levels of the business cycle, that they were in a “new era of permanent prosperity.” Even in ancient Rome, they were under the impression they had fixed a state of affairs – an affluent society – as master of the world. The more things change, the more they remain the same. No matter what a legislature does, no matter what a president says, no matter what new concepts are around, the cycles of up and down take their toll – be it in stock markets, cattle prices, gold values, or whatever.” We will see where this ends, but I suspect the bodies this time are buried in the private equity/credit yard. Nothing like lending money with loose or minimal covenants to lenders that have little to no MOAT and probably don't generate any cash and just need more infusion to keep running. Folks trying to allow PE/PC in their retirement accounts..... AI is a bubble but I think the real damage is happening at your local hospital, plumber, or anywhere else that PE has rooted inside. First Brands was a canary. AI is more just a bunch of big companies trading dollars between themselves, but they are real dollars. It will slow at some point and drag equities down eventually but the real action is happening elsewhere IMO. Private credit is going so well that debt holders are swapping their debt for equity. This is usually where the fun begins. -Sean