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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mang Cheng who wrote (14087)	2/25/1998 9:39:00 PM
From: gfr fan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 45548

<<For that matter, what's an inflection point? It's a mathematical term to describe the place on a curve where a slope changes sign. For example, it happens when a convex curve turns into a concave one, or vice versa.>> Some inflection points within the networking industry: 1) Adoption of ethernet hubs. This made Cabletron and Synoptics. 2) Adoption of routers instead of TDM's, and the growth of frame relay. This made Cisco. 3) Adoption of ethernet switching as a replacement to shared hubs. This killed Cabletron (it's only a matter of time) and weakened Bay severely. It also helped fuel 3Com's rise and Cisco's upward and ongoing march. 4) Introduction of remote access servers. This made Ascend and USR. Potential coming inflection points: ASIC based routing (otherwise known as L3 switching), 10/100 switching ports replacing ethernet switching, ATM wan adoption, cable modems, voice over IP, Xdsl. I know of two companies that are well positioned to exploit these waves, and they both have "C" as the first letter in their stock symbols, and Cabletron is not one of them.

To: Mang Cheng who wrote (14087)	2/25/1998 10:31:00 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

Mang, A couple posts back, I said that if we get past today that the risk of a pre-announcement of an earnings disappointment goes way down and that the stock should start to move up as time passes provided we have "no pre-announcement news." I think I was about a week too early. I went back to the dates of all the downgrades that this stock has had over the last three months. You can find them on Yahoo. Here they are. --Date-------Firm--------From---------To 11/7/97----Robertson-----Buy----------LT Attractive 11/10/97---Tucker Ant----Buy----------Hold 12/3/97----Alex Brown----Downgraded 12/3/97----Lehman--------Downgraded 12/3/97----Donaldson-----Downgraded 12/8/97----JP Morgan-----Mkt Per------Buy 12/17/97---Everen--------Initial------Mkt. Per 12/17/97---Goldman-------Rec. List----Mkt. Outperf 2/3/98-----CS First Bos-Initial------Hold As you can see from the list, the real downgrades hit three days into the quarter or on December 3, 1997. However, much of the damage had been done to the stock price in the previous two months. So the market knew about the big problems well in advance of the quarter's end and the brokerage firms publicly recognized them in mass three days after the quarter's end. So, next Wednesday is three days after this quarter's end. If we don't get hammer in the next five trading days, I think the stock will begin to run. That's because after that time, the risk of additional problems goes way down. If you look at a chart of ASND, that stock didn't start to run until January, after their most recent quarter's end. Seven weeks later the stock is up 50%. So we are headed into interesting times. Regards David