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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Serendipity who wrote (20323)	2/25/1998 11:49:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

Seren, with all due respect, you sound like you're married to the stock all of a sudden. I think there's been many generations of us? Unfortunately the facts are the facts. I believe when pressed I've presented many valid questions and concerns that there seem to be no answer to. You seem to try to just ignore these issues and look forward, which is fine, but some consideration should be extended to those who are watching the problems that washed out our cash. I believe we understand there is value there, but feel it may be dwindling...maybe, maybe, dying a slow death, sooner or later a buyout candidate. I feel for the Dr. also, but this is business and to my way of thinking, he kind of rounds out an executive team that appears to be UNqualified for the positions they hold. They are and have been simply letting the company rot away. They need to sell the company or replace the entire board, with the possible exception of Dr Schmidt, IMO. sf

To: Serendipity who wrote (20323)	2/26/1998 12:24:00 AM
From: Don Earl	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42771

Hi Serendipity, The most simple at a glance way to read a trend line is to draw a line across the low points in a chart. As far as mixing FA with TA, in Novells case it's a lot simpler than you make it sound. For three years the stock price has matched the decline in revenue. I spend quite a bit of time looking at everything from 1 minute to 5 year charts. I tend to focus mostly on 100 day and inter-day price/volume movement, mainly because I rarely hold the same position for more than a few months. IMO it really depends on a persons time frame on what trend to look at, as there are always smaller cycles inside bigger cycles, inside.....etc. Would a person really base, say a two year investment, on a 30 day chart? When the 2 year chart shows nothing but down? Breaking resistance inter-day is important up until you start to reach previous resistance levels farther back in the chart. When a break out attempt fails, the assumption is that the larger trend is still in effect. In NOVLs case the magic number was 9 5/8. It had a strong base that was starting to approach an over bought condition. It had to happen this morning. It's now completely over bought with inter-day MAs going straight down. At this point major support is a long way down at about 6 7/8 with a small inter-day gap between the close and open just above support. So FWIW my analysis is that failure to break above 9 5/8 is confirmation that the longer term down trend is still in force. It will retrace to fill the gap and test support, forming a triple bottom. Triple bottoms are a weak pattern and it will probably break support. Possibly to test new lows. Although I consider that less likely as the pattern has flattened out quite a bit over the last 6 months or so. Then the usual pre earnings run up to test resistance which will probably be the 9 3/8 you saw today. Baring unpredictable events, that's about as close as I can read it this far out. Talking TA can get to be like an Irish Catholic discussing religion with an Irish Protestant. I'd rather not get into a pissing contest but I would be interested in seeing how you call it. Regards, Don