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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Earl who wrote (20332)	2/26/1998 1:30:00 AM
From: Paul Fiondella	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

Short Interest in NOVL As of 2/25/98 it stood at 10,381,480 vs 11,185,781 in January. This represents a decline of 7.2%, the first in many months. However 800,000 share covered with 10 million still out there doesn't sound very bullish to me. I listened to the conference call. ITs too late tonight after getting back at the ranch to post full comments. One comment however about delivery of Netware 5.0. It was reported in WSJ that Eric said to someone that Novell had about a year before it needed to worry about NT5. Well Netware 5.0 will not ship until June/July according to the conference call. That means two more quarters for Novell without their core product generating any improvement in revenues. NT5 will ship at the end of 98 or Q1 99. In my books that give Novell one quarter to prove that they have a hot product, the quarter ending Oct.31st before MSFT anticipation/FUD comes into play. Its pretty clear to me that everyone at Novell is getting too complacent. As I see it unless the Feds do something NOW to prevent MSFT from consolidating its monopoly, it will go far beyond what it has already done to damage NDS. MSFT contends it can integrate any product into its OS. I fully expect them to give away their directory if they see Novell gaining ANY momentum. They will put Novell in the position of Netscape where NSCP had to sell the browser and the web server while MSFT gave it away. Its called predatory pricing. Gates is a master of this technique---using one product that he has in a monopoly position to leverage the acceptance of another product where he wants to gain market share. One monopoly breeds another, then another. Either Novell gives away NDS to get it to be a standard before MSFT does its bit or it has its employees call up Senator Hatch and all of Utah's House Representatives to demand something be done to save their jobs. Because MSFT sees NOVL sitting in its way and its going kick Novell as badly as US antitrust regs allow it to get away with. Engineers are not a very savvy political group. But if you are a NOVL employee and are reading this, you NEED to get some understanding of your situation. The anti-trust issues will be decided this Spring. IF you sit on your complacent ass then MSFT will surely kick your ass out of its way. What was done to Netscape was one of the most shameless acts of monopoly aggression I have ever seen. This type of tactic was used by the trusts in the 19th Century. MSFT will do anything it takes to eliminate NOVL. Novell is too small to fight this battle on its own. You can expect MSFT to try to put the anti-trust issue into the cooler. Nothing stands between them doing that except political action. I can tell you that in my history books one of the reasons the trusts were busted was because the farmers in the West were getting squeezed by the railroads that were free to raise their tariffs because they monopolized rail traffic to market and they organized voting blocks in Congress to stop it. Your Utah ancestors knew how to fight for their rights when they had to. They didn't sit back on their complacent asses and say to themselves...'people who resort to law suits and government regulation can't compete in the marketplace'. You Novell employees better learn how to stand up for your right to compete ON A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD. Time is running out on Novell.

To: Don Earl who wrote (20332)	2/26/1998 2:18:00 AM
From: Serendipity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Hi Don: I acknowledge your last post regarding trend of NOVL. Unfortunately, once again you do not respond to my point by point letter and continue to open new grounds for discussion. Since we obviously have extremely different views and different ways of expressing those views, I propose we leave the matter as is. Your predictions of lower prices for novl are consistent with your short position and I have no problem respecting them. But let me assure you once and for all; if novl goes to seven it will do so without me. There is profit to be taken all the way to 7 1/4, but there are better points than that. <G> I wish you good luck and success in your trades. Sincerly, Seren.

To: Don Earl who wrote (20332)	2/26/1998 12:13:00 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

Hi Don: Novell continues strong this AM and it appears that the big TA TEST will happen today. There is very good volume this AM with more than 5.03 million shares traded as of 9:01 PST. Yes the $9 5/8 resistance will be the key number today. The 5 minute chart for yesterday and today show an excellent up trend pattern. The 200 day MA is at 8.917. As far as the fundamental, I was quite disappointed with the fall in revenues but I think they have now stabilized. I believe the free flow cash flow still remains positive too. There are always unexpected events in the future which have yet to be factored into this stock.... It is quite possible that a Netscape/Novell merger could happen and this would build more premium into the stock. Looking for $10 if we can break and then hold $9 5/8 today. EKS