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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tonyt who wrote (15898)	2/26/1998 11:52:00 AM
From: WTDEC	Respond to of 32384

Tony- Yes and yes. Also noticed some other calls such as VICL near its most recent bottom. Bernie even 'gave the devil his due' on LGND timing. However, I must confess that I remain skeptical of anyone calling enough of the short-term movements to, over a period of YEARS, beat a buy and hold strategy, especially when you must overcome the drag of ordinary income tax. I would be happy to be proved wrong by your future calls! You are very short term oriented and Henry has a long term outlook. In the investing world that's like being from different planets. Now I should tell you that I accumulated a fair amount of SEPR in the $17-$18 area only to see the stock decline to around $10. I bought more in the low teens during the decline, sold some of the $18 purchase to claim tax loses against other gains, and later bought even more SEPR in the low teens. Average cost now is about $14.and I still hold the position. The stock did churn in the 20s for quite a while, eventually broke 40 and has been churning again in the mid-upper 30s. The lessons: 1- $18 is now cheap but I sure looked dumb when the stock hit $10. 2- After leaving its $10 low, the only meaningful trading opportunities were the churning periods mentioned, but had I done so, the tax bite would have more than eroded the benefits. I should note that I've had my share of losers too. Also, I have had big losses and big gains in very short time periods but those were really just good/bad luck. This note is now much too long, but I do hope you will offer us your insights so we can fine tune our investing strategy. Clearly, I would have preferred to take my SEPR position as close to the bottom prior to its big run as possible. Is LGND now ready for a big run after years of churning, like SEPR was? Or do you think it is only a trading rally? The underlying business developments, IMO, seem to support the long awaited upward move. Regards, wtd