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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Paul Senior who wrote (78711)12/12/2025 12:35:28 PM
From: Madharry  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78741
 
These are not big positions for me and just holds as a long term investor.

The short term volatility with regard to AI stocks is very strange to me., especially considering that the pricing of stocks and the ipo market during the dot.com years was so different and there was almost no talk of bubbles and stretched valuations because there were no profits., other than Microsoft and Cisco pretty much. Not only are the metrics different but we here the word bubble at least 20 times a day. Perhaps there is a bubble in private equity valuations but I am not privy to those. It seems clear to me that there is just enough power to build out the current demand for data centers so its likely that those that do get built will be very valuable and very profitable, meanwhile for the hyperscalers its an arms race. some people think that apple will be a prime beneficiary because the can just sell their customer access to one of ai developers and collect a toll. Unfortunately Apple is a pretty expensive stock by my standards. Seems like there are enough companies that sell for 10-15 times earning and or free cash flow that have growth prospects. With interest rates and cd and money market rates almost gteed to decline over the next couple of year it seems foolhardy to reduce stock market exposure unless you are a short term trader and getting away for the holidays,

I looked at the pe and valuations of the HVAC companies and they all seem stretched possibly with the expectation of all the cooling that will be required by the data centers otherwise its a head scratcher for me.

I walked around the local Target again yesterday , they seemed to have more staff and just a ton of toys on the shelves. Not many customers and only two cashiers. I can see a ton of stuff going on sale post christmas. .



To: Paul Senior who wrote (78711)12/12/2025 10:10:57 PM
From: Madharry  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78741
 
SPHR to elaborate- it was never a value play but it seemed to offer a unique replicable experience that people are will to pay for globally. so I figure there could be 20-25 of them operating profitably globally over time. A friend of mine saw a concert there in Vegas and thought it was great.

I did some more research on VIC Names and HVAC names. AAP advance auto parts looks like a promising end of year pickup. several value funds are in the name including third point and t. rowe price. The stock seems fairly priced and they are trying to improve margins.

Daikun looks like the cheapest HVAC stock. Sill they are at 20 pe with about 10-11% annual growth.

I looked at Dell again one of my largest holdings. I think the could make $12 next 4 quarters so pe of 15 gets you to $180. So I will hold on.

Pot stocks made this huge up move today but I think product users underestimate the risk of psychosis and schizophrenia. so I am staying out.