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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Kirk © who wrote (26771)12/16/2025 10:16:21 AM
From: Elroy1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Arran Yuan

  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 26781
 
amid the belief that the artificial intelligence spending boom still has a long runway.

"The belief"? How can this writer know?

I'd be more inclined to bet that AI slows down over the next 18 months, and the "AI trade" crashes badly. Doesn't end, but stocks with 30x PE's don't do well when there is a slowdown in spending.


Co-packed optics!? What's that? I don't know, but the photonics stocks go up, so that's good enough for me.

Should photonics in AI spending grow faster than leading edge AI semis? Is it more long lasting or less competitive than NVDA and the AI ASICs of AVGO and MRVL? Who knows, man, not me.

I don't even know the main differences between LITE and COHR.

My calls end in March, so I'm just hoping we get another rally before then. Something tells me the photonics stocks will rally into their Q4 results announcements. Whether COHR rallies from $180 to $210 or from $130 to $150 in late Jan, that's the question.

In Aug 2025 I paid $4 each for some Mar 26 $130 COHR calls. They're now worth $58 each. In Aug 2025 I also bought a few COHR $100 Mar calls for $10 each, they're now $82. It's nuts. I barely know what this company does.....

I'm really happy that my NGL preferreds are working out well. Bought many of them for $21-$22 last year, and they pay about 11.5% per year, and are now $24.20. That's exactly what I was hoping for. So this investment which I understand very well and has worked out great is making me about 18% in less than a year. Very happy. Meanwhile take a flyer on a few COHR calls and they make me 800%-1,300% in less time.

It's like, why bother doing any analysis? Just buy a stock that will go up.....