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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: buckeye3d who wrote (1708)	2/26/1998 10:32:00 AM
From: Candle stick	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Why spend so much time trying to determine when a good company is overvalued and short it? Alex, a valid question. Not to toot my own horn, but the reason is that I make a lot of money doing it. My recent shorts included BOST, Boston Chicken, which fell from 40 to 6. I started a thread on the overvalued forum over a year ago. RAIN, Rainforest cafe, also fell from about 40 to 18....I started a thread in the overvalued forum there also. GUC, Gucci inc, fell from 80+ to 30ish, there I also started a thread in the overvalued forum, so you can see I am not just making these up.....I also shorted DJT, Trump enterprises which fell from 30 to 10, FGCI, Family Golf , when it fell from 34 to 18, PETS, Petsmart, from high 20's into the teens etc. etc. There are a few more. (by the way, all those companies were considered "good" ) Mind you, these stocks were all collapsing during a raging bull market. I made all these plays in the last 1 1/2 years or so. This is not to say that I have never lost. The only one that beat me good, though, was DELL, and on that I got out fast with a small loss and it continued dramatically higher. That was an isolated case and an error in my thinking, and I was quick to recognize it and learn from the error. AMZN, I feel very strong about on the short side. I have spent a lot of time going over the financials and the book selling market place as a whole, as I did with all the other grossly overvalued companies I have shorted. I believe I will make at least 50% return on my money before the year is out , and perhaps as much as 80%....its happened before, and this I see as the same game just a new name, AMZN......time will tell. But I have been a lot more right than wrong. Best of luck to you, you may well see 72-75 area. I am prepared for such a scenario. But in the end I will cover at 20-30, IMHO.........;^)

To: buckeye3d who wrote (1708)	2/26/1998 12:33:00 PM
From: Andreas Helke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

A company that is falling apart would be a really nice short if you could identify it with the necessary precision. If you goof with your selection you don't have a chance to get your lost money back. With a overvalued company like Amazon you have the risk that you come early to the party and have massive paper losses. But you have the chance for a few years to get out with a profit or only a small loss. I have seen only a handful of companies like Microsoft that managed to stay up and grow for ever. Almost all other companies stumble earlier or later and a company like Amazon can go down 80% if that happens. I should have traded my short position. I sold my shares at $58 and could have covered them for $44 reshorted at $60 and covered at $50 again, provided that I could have borrowed the shares. But I decided to keep the Amazon short as a small hedge for the case that the bull market would suddenly end or have a serious correction. But I have to admit it is not much fun to be short Amazon during a major tech stock rally. But despite of a unprofitable short position I still outperformed all major indices and the average fund manager in this year. Quite a change compared to last year where I gained nothing if calculating in US dollar. Andreas