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Strategies & Market Trends : Young and Older Folk Portfolio -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mili21 who wrote (25777)	1/30/2026 12:40:44 PM
From: weathersystems	4 Recommendations Recommended By jritz0 mrw11g mykesc2020 Tam3262 Respond to of 25829

Re: Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as US Fed Chairman; Fwiw, I'm not a subscriber to the Arora Report but here's their view on the subject. == Fed Chair Please click here for a chart of gold futures (GC_F). Note the following: The chart shows yesterday gold had a $5.5T swing. This is an extraordinarily large swing. Retail momo crowd was going all in in gold ETF (GLD) and silver ETF (SLV) in the early morning before the major drop. When retail buying was exhausted, that is when gold fell. The chart shows gold bulls aggressively bought the dip. The chart shows when speculation started building last night that President Trump would nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. The chart shows persistent selling after the Warsh speculation started. The chart shows selling in gold has continued after President Trump announced Warsh as his pick for the next Fed Chair. As shown on the chart, gold is experiencing extreme volatility, but the volatility in silver is even more dizzying. In one day, silver futures have traded in the range of $95.12 – $118.45, i.e. 24.5%. Before reading the following, it is worth a reminder that the Arora Report is politically agnostic. Our sole job is to help investors. Irrespective of your opinion of President Trump, in The Arora Report analysis, President Trump picking Warsh is a brilliant move. Some see the pick as a contradiction because Warsh has a history of being ultra hawkish, and President Trump is ultra dovish. In The Arora Report analysis, there is no contradiction, just pure, strategic brilliance for President Trump to get interest rates lower. The reason is FOMC has 19 members and only 12 vote. A vast majority of the members are not going to go along with President Trump’s desire to significantly lower interest rates. The Fed Chair has only one vote and thus cannot accomplish dovish policy unless he succeeds at persuading other members. The brilliance is a Fed Chair who is an ex-hawk has more credibility and a better shot at convincing other FOMC members to lower interest rates. At one time, there were many contenders for the Fed Chair job. Before the list was narrowed to four, The Arora Report shared in a podcast in Arora Ambassador Club that indications pointed to Kevin Warsh as the lead candidate. The podcast addressed why Kevin Warsh might be picked. Of note is that the Arora Report never did a podcast on any other candidate for Fed Chair. Producer Price Index (PPI) came hotter than expected. Here are the details: Headline PPI came at 0.5% vs. 0.2% consensus. Core PPI came at 0.7% vs. 0.3% consensus. As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

To: Mili21 who wrote (25777)	1/30/2026 6:37:43 PM
From: SeeksQuality	4 Recommendations Recommended By B.K.Myers chowder LCES Mili21 Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25829

Re: Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as US Fed Chairman I've read a couple things on this... Apparently Warsh has been pretty hawkish (i.e. higher interest rates to control inflation) in the past. Of course Trump is vocally dovish (i.e. lower interest rates to spur growth). I'm sure they discussed their views ahead of this nomination, so I wouldn't expect them to be at odds as much as the above characterization might make it sound. My expectation is that Warsh is willing to lower rates but isn't going to dive into it blindly - he will act as the data dictates. The market reaction to the nomination is interesting, as it hints at what the market participants have been thinking. Gold and silver were down a TON, reversing most of their gains for the YTD. But that trade naturally draws investors who are worried about "debasement", so it isn't necessarily reflective of broader market sentiment. This still suggests that this segment of investors is less fearful than before. DXY ticked up today, possibly indicating greater confidence in the US than that indicator has expressed over the last two weeks. Of course DXY is also driven by what is happening in other countries (there's a lot going on in Japan), so both the weakness and today's modest rebound could have nothing at all to do with Warsh. Tough to say. We're seeing a lot of idiosyncratic movement in the stock market this earnings season, which is a healthy sign. Companies that had been in the dumpster are being rewarded for even moderate strength. Those that had been flying very high on fumes are getting punished if they fall even a little short. Good to see the bulls battling the bears rather than just seizing the bit and charging forward. Mixed markets are best for both value-driven strategies and those focused on identifying operational strength. It is clearly no longer as simple as "buy growth tech on dips". Not when the software sector is getting crushed like this. The S&P500 is no longer dominant. Wasn't last year, either, and that has continued into January. Your typical "blended" portfolio of domestic, international, and bonds continues to match the S&P500 for performance with significantly lower volatility. I'm seeing a lot more positives than negatives in the earnings, even among stocks that are getting hit in reaction. The MSFT earnings (and boost to the outlook) did not in my opinion justify a 12% share decline. I'll take it, of course, but I think it was irrational. Keep calm and own strength - that appears to be broadly outperforming "deep value" or "aggressive growth" here. Not that I'm much at either of those styles. GLTA