Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Young and Older Folk Portfolio -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SeeksQuality who wrote (25808)	1/30/2026 7:11:55 PM
From: cemanuel	Respond to of 25833

Re: Apparently Warsh has been pretty hawkish (i.e. higher interest rates to control inflation) in the past. Warsh was a hawk historically. For the past year or so he's turned Dovish. I'm not sure people know where he'll stand. There's a lot of talk that his recent change of heart was mainly politicking for the job. So I don't know what he'll do. I'd ask, "Who wants life to be boring?" except I think most investors know the answer - the market does. This is an opinion piece but I found it interesting. A hawk in dove's clothing? One thing the article mentions is the thought that he'll try to lower rates by reducing the Fed's balance sheet. It's down from where it was a couple of years ago but still very high based on where it stood before the Pandemic and particularly ahead of the GFC.

To: SeeksQuality who wrote (25808)	1/31/2026 10:02:11 AM
From: DinoNavarre	3 Recommendations Recommended By diegosan jritz0 TeamTina Respond to of 25833

One view of Warsh..... Thoughts on Warsh He understands that the Fed is no longer the protagonist of the American story. That's the plot twist that needs to be deeply realized. The era itself possesses more agency than the characters inhabiting it. Warsh thinks AI provides a temporary bypass, a supply-side accelerator that allows the economy to run hotter for longer without immediate combustion.That's because he believes AI is ultimately a productivity boost and is deflationary. So you can run hot prior to the productivity benefit. It is a tactical recognition that if machine intelligence can widen the margin of productivity, the Fed can afford to keep its foot off the brake. He still knows the road ends in a wall if the physical infrastructure is not widened to match the digital speed. His rejection of Neo-Classical models is a rejection of the ghost in the machine. He views the "equilibrium" the Fed models as a fiction, preferring AI-driven models that account for the friction of the real world. The situational agency of 2026 leaves him with no alternative but to back reindustrialization. The structural debt and the "future certainty" of the material deficit—the reality is that we need more silver, copper, and titanium than we can currently access—the agency of this risk dictates the path and momentum. Policy is now a hostage to physics. You cannot print the metals required for the energy transition or the chips required for the AI boom. Warsh is trapped by the outcomes of previous dogma. His support for rebuilding the industrial base is the only way to prevent the debt trap from snapping shut. In this narrative, the central banker is less a master of the universe and more an engineer trying to reinforce the tracks before the train arrives.Put another way, this new industrialization era will require a different style of Fed chair and new pro-industrial policy FOMC. Expect a lot of volatility as the world changes around us. It wouldn't be fun if it was easy.