To: skinowski who wrote (41605 ) 2/4/2026 4:14:04 PM From: Perspective Respond to Thank you for the post on XLB! Not very E-wiggly :-) but appreciated! Trying to talk myself into spending some regular time on the markets again for the first time in nearly two decades. The combination of stretched market valuations and extreme volatility in the metals has me worried that we're about to see another wave of inflation driven by liquidity chasing materials, energy, and ag products. Nobody has to own gold to live, but we do have to have energy and food to survive. And if I want a decent standard of living, I also need to be able to pay for the services of others. The only reasonably close investable proxy for that is rents. After watching my cash get slaughtered the past five years while I was focused on my startup, I don't want to see that happen again. Looking over the NDX for the first time in a very long time, it's obvious the momentum of the MAG7 is gone. Interesting to see a flight to "safety" in WMT trading at 40X earnings with the 10-year yielding about 5%. So we're paying a 100% premium to treasuries there and that's "safety?" Any guesses what the valuation metrics look like for most of the miners right now? I see a whole lot of pain in ASML, AMAT, KLAC, and LRCX - big January volumes leaving a bunch of new shareholders underwater on those... Meanwhile LIN looks poised for a potential breakout. Might need a pause before testing the 480 resistance, but if they're repricing their contracts to semiconductor companies, their earnings could start moving. Would love to hear thoughts on that one. It's somewhat in line with my thinking that we've entered a wave 3 commodity supercycle which should support pricing and margins for basic materials. Haven't taken any positions, but if there's a good place to discuss stock picking like this - long or short, on SI or elsewhere - I'd love to hear it. Don't know if I have the stomach for or interest in short selling again, but with MAG7 momentum faltering, it does seem like the big tech-heavy indices could be under pressure. At least it might mean some relative strength in names outside of the MAG7 for a change. That would be welcome.
