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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patrick tang who wrote (29056)	2/27/1998 1:38:00 PM
From: Megs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

>if the next downcycle is 2001, will there be any upcycle in between? >And when? The next upcycle will begin later this year. I have stated before it should be around the 3Q. That will correspond with the conversion in the PC OEMs to 64Mbit SDRAM. The fact that this chip is 3 times as big as the smallest 16Mbit will in itself cause the reduction of parts out the door. That and Win98 needing 32MB minimum (translation: you will need 64MB in your PC to run smoothly) we will start to see a "shortage". This will last for a couple of years while the DRAM manufacturers lick their wounds from this down cycle. Then they will want to turn their mothballed fabs back on and convert to 300mm to help with the 256MB yield and boom the down cycle will be here again. So there will be about 3 years of good times for the DRAM manufacturer. I'm hoping that the poor earnings that Micron will have this quarter will cause the price to plummet to the teens (I wish!) or low 20s. Because it will be a prime buy opportunity before it takes off again like it did in 94-95. I'll copy this message and save it to repost in 2002 to see how accurate I really am (any wagers?) :-)