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To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (10235)	2/26/1998 11:45:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

TSO: I'm not sure but my contention (has been) (will always be) that the reduction in DRAM spending can't be made up and the semi-equips are priced wrong. I could also argue that there is sufficient capacity (ala Kurlak) and a dearth of capital right now. So why build more? Later yes, now no. ---- As with any capital intensive industry the issue is simply: how much we have now and how much we we are going to need later. They have enough capacity now and the amount they need later keeps going down with Asia. ----

To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (10235)	2/26/1998 11:58:00 PM
From: SMALL FRY	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

DLO, 1. Desperate chip guys order new equipment to get to next level 2. Eqt guys get rich supplying the equipment 3. Chip guys start ramping up on new equipment 4. Chip guys finally get some volume, with decent margins at capacity, and accumulate just enough cash so that: 1a Desperate chip guys order new equipment....etc, ad nauseum.. I too own AMAT, LSI & VLSI, but talking about the former... is there really a silver lining??? cbs.marketwatch.com Is this the beginning of your cycle?<GGG> Best, SF