To All:
Sunday, March 01, 1998
Having been away Friday afternoon and yesterday, today I went to Novell on SI Board, there I saw over one hundred new posts!!! Too many to read I said! So, to Yahoo I went, over 150 new posts! AOL, over 80 new posts! Ouch! What am I going to do?! I can't afford the time to read all these posts. But what if .
So, with the help from two people, each of us a terminal, we soon had all the posts reviewed, separated and hopefully understood, by me! After that, I was once again alone!
What does all this mean?
CEO on CNBC, NBC's and Jim Rogers comments, the lawsuit, all the stated opinions and predictions, hope, hype of doom, hypocrisy, hostility, hurry, hurly-burly, humbug. LOL Wow! Too much, my head is spinning! I get up and go out side... The mist of the rain is in the air. The sun is coming out. I can hear the distant bark of a dog. All is peaceful and serene. The phone rings and brings me back inside.it is about the Market.Oh, No!
Dow at record high, up 131 points for the week, up 639 points for the month , Strong economic growth, Strong employment, Budget surplus, Inflation lowest in 32 years, European and Asian markets in advance, and;
Novell up 1/2 point yesterday, 2.30 points (28%) up in the week, 4 points (60%) up for the month and 3.25 points up from my 7 1/4 average cost (posted here before the price advance.) On Friday;
1-CEO Schmidt's performance was passable, only because he DID NOT make a mistake. He could have done better, but please read my earlier posts. He is an abstract thinker and ill suited against the professional and semi hostile "team" of, Mark, Joe and Rogers. It was good he showed up. he was triple timed: He did not fumble, but did not advance the ball either. There have been good discussion of this subject here and other boards, so I will only do some PARTIAL quotes;
Lu Mattl points out if CEO did not do the CNBC interview.. I totally agree with Lu;
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Subject: Re: WHERE FROM HERE????
Date: Fri, Feb 27, 1998 23:57 EST
From: LuMattl
Message-id: <19980228045700.XAA19470@ladder03.news.aol.com>
"Novell hit with huge class action lawsuit--CEO refuses our request for an interview".
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Subject: The Spin Doctor
Date: Sat, Feb 28, 1998 03:37 EST
From: AJMJGEM
Message-id: <19980228083700.DAA13659@ladder03.news.aol.com>
This one's for the Doc.....
Honestly, Doc, I am a real fan.
You're a genius. A leader.You are the man.
But TV loves slick. It's confused by the truth.
Lincoln saw a better show put on by John Booth.
When they ask about stock price, please learn how to spin
Or else get a PR man with a pearly-white grin.
Keep doing your thing and mapping our course.
But if they ask for an interview, tell them you're hoarse.
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My comments;
2--The lawsuit; I am not going to discuss it beyond the interest of a share holder;
A) is it positive for NOVL? NO
B) will it go anywhere fast? NO
C) will it cost NOVL? YES
D) will it have long term impact? NO
E) does the market know about the law suit or will it need "Monday" (tomorrow )-as stated by some here-to really hit the price?
Well, the way I see it is that if we know a bout the lawsuit then the market knows about too! More than 80% of the volume is institutional. Volume of 22.496M shares of Friday had to be mostly by those who have at least as much access to news and know how as us. Market Makers in NOVL are institutions connected to world wide news and information. They have layers after layers of support. They know what is happening in the options pits. Don't you agree? In fact I ALWAYS assume that if I know something, wall street already knows it and knows more. I quote;
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By: bobgd
Date: Feb 27 1998 4:51 P.M PST
Reply To: Msg. 7 by Yahoo Finance
The news of the class action lawsuit was released at 11:01am eastern standard time. The stock was coming off it's high of the day just after the release of this news. But hopefully investors shrugged this news off as Novell rebounded on active trading in the finale few hours of trading. Does anyone else have any views on this?
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my comments continue;
Bobgd is correct. The price eroded to 10 1/8 and tested it 10 1/8 twice and kicked up, (a bad tick showed a lower price and was automatically removed) It then traded heavily on going higher.
As far as I am concerned, with or without the lawsuit, the price had run up too quickly and by allowing the investors of 6 and 12 months ago to break even, had to pull back.This was to expected. I will not take the time to find my posts. But let me paraphrase from them.
'Resistance at... 11 and...If you wish to have a stock without resistance, you must buy an all time high stock.'
'I have had experience with turn arounds. When they turn, they will leave a lot of people behind.'
What will the price do tomorrow? No one can tell for certain. With an already extended stock, law suit, market itself, "games of wall street" , analysts, news, buyers and sellers will all combine and determine the closing price. People who think they can call the price every day are disillusioned. They can not and THEY DO NOT NEED to. Investing is not going to Los Vegas and betting on Red and Black at Roulette Table, IMO. (A very bad game any way. LOL ) In stock investment, one needs to call only the important moves. In the last few months, much has been said about the price levels. Calling the price around seven or so was much easier than here. Just as it is easier to swim in ones swimming pool than the Atlantic. Not that it can not be done or there are not enough swimmers. Lots of them have the past few days.
For those who may be new to this board; I have been posting here and have been bullish. Advocates have been Joe, Paul and Don on the bearish side. Quid-K, Frederick and Myself, on the bullish side. There are of course others on both sides, who have posted less. It is relevant to say that my bullishness has been a conditional development while averaging in. In fact my stated stop loss of 6 3/4 or so with my average price of 7 1/4 was surprising to Paul on this board. Quad-K, Paul and myself discussed it the reasons.
Finally, much has been offered by the bears, to the bulls and potential buyers of the stock, advocating selling or not buying the stock. As we all have seen, the predictions about the Market, Asia and Novell have yet to pan out. The fact that Joe Antol wrote me (really to all the Bulls) a congratulatory note, indicated to me he meant it and that he was rooting for the stock and the bulls and that we were all going to work together and profit. I wrote back and thanked his generosity. Here is his post;
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To: Serendipity (20350 )
From: Joe Antol
Thursday, Feb 26 1998 3:46PM EST
Reply # of 20472
Congrats to all the longs. "Finally" broke through my exit of 9 3/8
on 11/24/97. As I said, I would be the first to stand up and say so.
I hope the upswing continues. I as Don said, am surprised.
Regards,
Joe...<but hey... that's what this is all about no? <g>>
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My thank you note to Joe...
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my comments;
and then the lawsuit and Joe writes all the posts we all can click on to read.
The degree of glee is interesting, however. Please also consider, Joe and Paul do not have a position in NOVL and therefore have no monetary reason for joy. (Don is short but shows no such glee.) Then what is the reason? I wonder for law suit celebration?
Our loss? Our failing as investors? Or is it against Novell and the bulls are nothing but insignificant pawns?
Is it the need to be proven correct-ultimately-despite the loss? Joe has posted he lost money, Paul I do not know. Even so, why not wait until the price drops? Please read and note the following post. It comes only ONE DAY after Joe's congratulation. You be the judge:
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Subject: Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
To: Kenneth B. Thiel (20446 )
From: Joe Antol
Friday, Feb 27 1998 8:15PM EST
Reply # of 20472
Uh ... Kenneth, just tagging onto your post. Not directed at you. And unlike some other people <g> *I* knew your post wasn't fabricated.
I (of ALL people) really, really appreciate you posting this important information so the folk here can get timely news.
Uh... the "Tolonen" guy I was referring to is uh... their uh.. CFO <s>
(Sorry Ken, I'm having trouble controlling myself here ... <g>), I know you don't understand this cryptic response, but it would well...
take too much time to explain ...
Anyway,
Thanks for the post. Oh, and don't worry, it'll be ALL over the place
(REAL SOON NOW).
I just sent it to a couple of my media buddies at IBD and Barrons
(Heh, heh, heh)
Regards,
Joe...<oh.... man, 'what goes round', comes round'. Yepper. Always did; Always will....BUT, not to worry! I'm sure this won't have ANY effect whatsoever though and the stock will continue to "propel to new lofty highs" - the high teens and low 20's even... You know these lawsuits are a dime a dozen right? Everybody has got one going, like say uh.. Corel (Oh yeah, I forgot, Novell still owns 15% of this
company...Hmmm...)
Yeah... no problem....5 years in court, and no action. Business should be just how shall I say, "as usual".
PS: Hey DB! (Big Chief Counsel and master of "midnight calls") --- you're gonnna be quite busy now, eh? ..... Heh, heh, heh)
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my comment; No comment.
As to Paul and Frederick debate I do not wish to add fuel to the fire. In fact I believe both these gentlemen have much to offer to this board but are unfortunately taking things personally. Frankly, I do not appreciate their tone and style, and would like to see peace between them.
Last comment;
I have asked the bulls to be humble and would like to extend that request to everyone. If we don't respect one another, this board will either break or will have less and less contributors. As the man said;
"CAN'T WE ALL GET ALONG HERE?"
Wishing all of you the best,
Seren.
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