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To: Helios who wrote (12720)	2/27/1998 4:17:00 PM
From: sepku	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Whether the use of trendlines (or any other TA indicator) yield better than average results or not, is completely dependent upon the individual using them. So it cannot be "proven" that the results fall on either side of the fence. As indicators, trendlines are not tools that determine the direction of a stock, they only help indicate. This requires a great deal of interpretation, so the skills of the individual employing them is what decides the outcome of the process. Again, all a trendline is for is to help get a feel of how the mass psychology of all market players is affecting a stock. How you use this raw information is all up to you -- it is you who determine the results you get, not the data. Specifically regarding the 200 day EMA. All you have to do is pull up a chart and lay the 200EMA across it, and you will see the changes in trend as clear to you as night and day. The only problem is, when you are attempting to discern where the trend is today, you must analyze the right edge of a chart where the trendline ends with the most current data. You don't have the benefit of looking forward a few days and determining whether the current conversion of price with a trendline is going to result in a breakout or rebound, or even a false breakout. But then a 200EMA is not for determining the trend tomorrow, it is for long-term trends...using it to determine a day/position or short-term trade is reckless and equivelent to boxing with binoculars. However, if your intention in to hold a position for several months, the 200EMA is an excellent tool in aiding your entry point so you can ride the positive momentum of a stock. Using ASND as an example, the 200EMA yields very few false breakouts, and if a person had traded according to the indicator, he would have capitalized on the latter stages of uptrends and avoided most of the downtrends. Unfortunately in my case, I was determined to hold ASND for the long-term through thick and thin, and didn't heed this indicator last Summer/Fall. Also, when I said: "200ema and 50 ema, are very reliable if applied correctly (in combinations with other techniques to verify true changes in trend..." I wasn't referring to other TA indicators, in my case. I use combinations of moving averages to yield positive and reliable results, consistently. So there are no other indicators that can be responsible for my results in my case. Like I said, it's all in how you use the data...it doesn't do the work for you. >>>Since the MA indicators do not bring about above average results it would seem likely that some other great minds use the liquidity brought about by the MA signal to get out of a stock that others are trying to get into.<<< Your repeated statement that MA's "do not bring about above average results" is your opinion, not a fact. If that is your personal experience, then that applies to yourself only and you are responsible for your lack of results. No doubt there are those who take advantage of the liquidity -- but that goes both ways. Some may use it to exit, some to ride the momentum. The fact is, whether you believe in the psychological theories behind MA trendlines, they have an obvious affect on the market. And that is because of the mass psychological tides shifting among bulls and bears, or people trading in anticipation of such increased liquidity based on those using trendlines, or a combination of both -- which is what I believe. In any case, there is a clear effect on stocks, and it's up to you whether you want to take advantage of that or not. This debate is pointless. You invest based on what works for you, and I will do likewise. Style Pts.