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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wooden ships who wrote (3683)	2/28/1998 10:08:00 AM
From: Alan Whirlwind	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42834

Interesting. As a footnote, CBS news reported this morning that the President's legal defense team was now leaning towards his admitting to a "kissing relationship only" with the former White House intern. Everything else said to have happened is termed "Young Miss Lewinski's exaggerations." (Good thing he didn't inhale.) Hopefully I can pull in Brinker today for his opinion as to whether this development signals further deterioration in the presidency and how it might weigh on the markets. --AG

To: wooden ships who wrote (3683)	2/28/1998 7:59:00 PM
From: wooden ships	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

Though Brinker remains bullish and advises full investment and dollar cost averaging at these lofty levels, he raised the subject of an "intermediate term correction" on at least two occasions today, to recall it. An intermediate term correction is defined by Brinker as a correction of greater than 10% and less than 20%. Of course, the obvious problem, as noted on the broadcast, is that an intermediate term correction is a normal precursor to an all out bear market, should a bear market follow suit. As I have it, since it is impos- sible to distinguish between the advent of an intermediate term correction and the beginnings of a true bear market, Brinker would advise a zero equity position should he issue a call for said inter- mediate term correction. To be sure, Brinker, to date, has not called for such a correction, but the discussion of same on MoneyTalk might be deemed a notable event per se for those who are wont to search between Brinker's lines for items of interest. In response to caller who was toying with the idea of putting money into the stock market rather than real estate because the market has moved up so smartly, Brinker noted that this extra- ordinary bull has run from Dow 777 in 1982 to 8500 odd presently, and, in his view, "the big money has already been made." Indeed, as noted on this thread prior and on the broadcast proper, Brinker is on record as calling for a momentous bull market in 1982 at that historic inflection point. Parenthetically, at the same time, the New York Times was trumpeting in business headlines, "Wall Street is a Basket Case" or similar. That being said, the question I pose academically is the following: Let us assume, per Brinker, that the big money has been made. By inference, then, the market should thus be expected to revert to its mean, i.e., its historical average of 10% gains per year over the very long term. Does not this argument in itself make a compel- ling case for stockpicking versus index investing going forward? After all, Brinker himself has no illusions that these enormous yearly gains will continue for the major markets indefinitely. Should individual issues become the focus now given Brinker's inferred major market slowdown?