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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Goode who wrote (31499)	2/28/1998 6:56:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

John, I'm frankly surprised that anyone would claim "over-valuation" for a stock without having a value in mind. I must confess that I simply don't know how to value growth stocks, although I keep trying. I will say flat out that the parameters you cited: PSR and equity are totally useless. The former because it doesn't incorporate the concepts of growth or profitability or cash flow, and the latter because it is entirely backward-looking, not to mention replete with inaccurate assumptions. Your arguments have been repeated so often that I hear them in my dreams <VBG>. A company is worth what willing buyers and sellers agree to trade at, so a company is worth what the market tells us. How much is a Rembrandt worth? Just look at the latest auctions. How much is an acre of land worth? Just look at comparables. It's really no different with companies. Don't feel picked on; I reserve my best stuff for market timers and TA lovers. Regards, Paul

To: John Goode who wrote (31499)	2/28/1998 7:10:00 PM
From: Jeff Mills	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 176387

I agree with the DELL Bear case. It is rather difficult to ever short the exact top, but I think short term (6-9 months time frame) DELL has "peaked". The common stock is up from $79 3/8 on January 12th. That is a 76% move since that time based on yesterday's close of $139 7/8. Often times when I buy stock I try to visualize where I would like to sell it. Sure I can buy DELL, but where am I going to be able to sell it and how long will it take to get there? For DELL to go higher and higher alot of events must stay "under control" because DELL will no longer be trading off that earnings report released last week. That report is just about played out. This is important to remember. The 30 yr yield, Iraq, Asia, Nasdaq and Dow, etc all will affect DELL over the next few quarters. If the market begins to selloff, which it very well may considering its move in the last 4-6 weeks, DELL sells off. Additionally, one could argue that if disk drive and DRAM supplys come back into "check" and prices move up, DELL would suffer--just as they have benefited from the "downturn" in pricing over the last 3-4 quarters. I saw an interesting article in Business Week re: Intel. Intel was not even ranked in the top 25 of US companies in 1997 sales, but Intel was #3 in the country in profitability. IMO, this is why Intel has a $160 Billion marketcap and sells at over 6 times sales. Intel is a monopoly that has tremendous margins. Sure DELL may do $16 billion in sales this year, but they will be lucky to take home $1.2 Billion of that, or 8%. Kind of reminds me of a commodity producer at times. It's kind of funny to see Bulls get very stressed out about shorts. You guys get very emotional. When a person shorts, he/she is just saying "this is a good time for me to sell DELL". Nothing more nothing less. Less than 45 days ago DELL was worth $28.8 Billion on paper. Now 6 weeks later its worth $50 Billion. Remarkable quarter, yes. But nothing is that good--not even Lehman's recomendation. Reality is reality. I started shorting some DELL on Friday. I was short COMS at $55 and short WDC at $48 in the Fall last year. It takes alot of patience. But numbers just don't lie. DELLs numbers have become obnoxious--and no Bull case can justify the $21,200,000,000.00 in marketcap that DELL has tacked on in 6 weeks. It's that simple, JM