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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: djane who wrote (36816)	2/28/1998 11:08:00 PM
From: jach	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

<<my crystal ball has ASND trading at $60/share (conservative estimate) on 12/31/88 based on excellent 2H98 earnings and higher 1999 estimates. ASND is perfectly positioned for the next 3-5 years. Its business prospects look excellent after the growing/merger pains in 1997.>> seems like the crystal ball has some side mirrors missing; didn't see competitions coming from all angles - cisco with the AS5800, the new switches from startups such as Argon (http://www.argon.com), and who knows what cisco and 3com might release next week or next month. Most of the high-tech crystal balls that I heard of, only can tell for the next 3 to 6 months and then only in a fairly accurate way of 70%. In this very fast moving Internet high-technology game, 3 to 5 yrs is a lonnng time -

To: djane who wrote (36816)	2/28/1998 11:41:00 PM
From: sepku	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Djane, that was an excellent post and all your points were valid and very accurate, in my opinion. However...what I want to know is: where the hell have you been hiding all this time?? ;o) Thanks for the analysis. Style Pts.

To: djane who wrote (36816)	3/1/1998 1:14:00 AM
From: Gary Korn	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 61433

djane, Where have you been hiding? [After writing this post, I went back and saw Style Pts. message with the same comment. It says something about how powerful your post was.] I wish I could do an analysis as thorough, analytical and readable as what you just posted. If you needed any proof, I think you've convinced me to add to a position that I had cut back quite a bit when we reached 35. At March options expiration, I'm inclined (after reading your post) to sell naked puts in April in an amount equal to or greater than I have expiring in March. One of the most interesting points you made was that, after setting aside tax selling and margin calls, ASND's true fair value at YE97 may have been closer to $35 than to $25, somewhat reducing the magnitude of the current run to $38 (and suggesting that it continues to have more to run). I do have a concern insofar as the RBOCs and CLECs will not constantly have billions and billions of dollars to spend on network infrastructure. I've got to find the article, but I do recall a recent news item to the effect that margins are getting slimmer at the RBOCs in part due to all of this spending. When the budget axe falls, the RBOC/CLEC vendors will feel it. (When the ISPs ran out of money, ASND and the other RAS vendors felt it.) Still, I don't want to detract from your points. Great job! Gary Korn

To: djane who wrote (36816)	3/1/1998 2:53:00 AM
From: Larry J.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

djane, man, you must have been lurking for a long time, you really had it bottled up. Once you decided to post you sure let it rip! <ggg> Just kidding, you make some excellent points. The temptation to take some $$ off the table is compelling, but the profit potential of 2 - 3 years out is greater still. Welcome to the thread! Larry

To: djane who wrote (36816)	3/1/1998 10:06:00 AM
From: Sector Investor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Djane, Welcome as an active poster. That was one excellent post. Re your point 3: I thought ASND might purchase a VoIP or VoFR company, but it looks like they are developing internally. Besides the low stock price hindering acquisitions, perhaps they got enough technology with CSCC (and it's acquisitions) to hold them for a while? Several of ASND's new products (when they come out) appear to be blends of ASND and CSCC technology - a plus for both.