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To: Michael who wrote (14525)	3/1/1998 3:13:00 PM
From: Mike McFarland	Respond to of 18056

Commodities/OFF TOPIC, Regarding that article and chance for a hot summer... The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting something around an excess probability of five percent for cooler than average temperatures for the central portion of the country this summer. If there is a 33% chance of each category, warmth, average, cooler than normal. You add this excess probability to the odds for cooler than normal temps, keep the odds of average temps at 33%, and the remainder goes to warmth. nic.fb4.noaa.gov

To: Michael who wrote (14525)	3/1/1998 3:16:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Michael: probably not. A huge portion of the US agriculture comes from California, which has endured the Grapes of Wrath for most of the decade...double-digit unemployment, floods, drought, crop diseases, etc. Lower interest rates is just now making it possible for people to buy already-depressed properties-- outside of the Bay Area and a few spots in So Cal we still have double-digit unemployment. El Nino isn't any worse than the floods of the past few years, the press likes to make a big deal out of the beachfront homes that fall into the ocean. So if somebody wants to manipulate commodity prices in some direction the press may use El Nino as an excuse but I seriously doubt it has anything to do with it. El Nino improves crops in some areas and worsens in others, so a global producer isn't affected. For instance, at valentine's day the local flower-growers had flowers from Chile flown in to make up for a shortfall in local crops, it took 12 hours from order to delivery. There's overproduction in lots of crops so I'm sure the farmers would like some excuse to jack up prices instead of drop them. Farmer Mac can fund things like ostrich farms, horse ranches, wind-turbine fields, and weekend recreational ranchos, most of their real market is probably going to come from baby-boomers wanting weekend ranchos that use the label "farm" for the tax advantages that come with it. Like any bank, their profits are dependent upon interest rates and the ability to compete with Fannie Mae for products: the worst case for this bank is that it can't survive as a separate entity and it's folded into another agency like Fannie Mae. Almost half of the original offering was purchased by Zion Bank so there's precious few shares available for trading, methinks you'll get squeezed if you try to trade it.