To: Stewart V. Nelson who wrote (8 ) 3/1/1998 9:27:00 PM From: Rick Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 25
Stewart - I am impressed with your overall summary of CATP and would like to drill down in a couple of areas. Re: 50% growth (revenues and earnings) You indicate that TSCC has slightly lower growth prospects than CATP. What is this based on ? It seems to me that TSCC with about 1000 employees should be able to grow faster than CATP with over 3000 employees. Clearly CATP is very aggressive in its growth targets and self promotion, but don't you think it is possible that their targets are set too high and will not be met ? Also, when all is said and done, any of these tech labor shops can enter any business - if the money is in Internet Commerce, TSCC and everybody else will be there along with CATP. Do you agree that its alot easier to grow a 1000 person firm than a 3000 person firm at 50% ? Re: CATP Shameless (my opinion) Self Promotion CATP has done a great job of marketing and growing the company to this point. As a potential investor, though, I become very concerned when the marketing seems more focused on selling the company's stock, rather than the consulting services. Recently, they have issued press releases and interviews that seem to have the sole purpose of pumping the stock price: 1) CFO on earnings day declares "...we think we can beat what's on the Street today...", 2) Press Release declares "Cambridge Breaks Ground on New Headquarters to Support Rapid Growth...." - the message here, of course, is we are so confident of our continued growth prospects that we are investing in an expensive new headquarters - however, a detailed reading of the press release makes clear that 1) Cambridge may be investing nothing, it seems they have merely signed a lease on a build to suit - for all we know it may be a simple lease option and not even represent a committment, 2) One of the developers in the deal seems to undercut the message by referring to "....the proposed new building", perhaps protecting his own credibility in this deceptive Press Release, and finally 3) It is clear that no ground, as in earth has been broken, since one of the quotes in the release talks about starting the project in the future - it seems that Cambridge is using the words "Cambridge Breaks Ground on New Headquarters" quite loosely. How many CATP investors conjured up the image of CATP, a company so strong and confident that they are building their own Headquarters in Boston, when the reality is they signed a lease for new space 1 to 2 years out into the future. They seem to be creating a Grand Illusion. Re: Accounting I have noticed over the years that the most aggresive promoters in the tech industry all seem to also have aggressive accounting techniques and all seem to crash and burn with greater frequency than the more conservative companies. Oracle and Larry Ellison are a great example - rember back in the early 90's when Oracle was the hot stock, shot up to 26 and then announced that there accounting controls were a little weak and nearly bankrupted the company (stock went back to 5 over the next 6 months). Oracle, of course came back strong, but now again has crashed from 46 to 17 and now working back at around 25. Anyway, I think this is similar to what's happening with CATP - good company, good momentum, but growing too fast and will likely crash and burn a few times before all is said and done. Re: Momentum Investors will Bail if Top Line Slows What are the key indicators that momentum investors will use to project top line growth ? I heard from a former CATP employee that there is a "hiring freeze" at CATP. Basically, he indicated that internally they are not referring to it as a freeze, but hiring seems to be at a standstill. Part of the reason for this may be to reduce the expenses in Q1 in an effort to meet the Streets expectations - it has the overall effect of reducing the hiring expenses and unbillable consultant expenses for the period. If true, the top line growth would probably hit the 50% area and they may be able to make the earnings number, but the growth in net employees added would probably slow - how do you think this would this be interpreted by investors ? Anyway, I would appreciate your additional thoughts. Rick.