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To: DavidG who wrote (29154)3/1/1998 8:40:00 PM
From: Anhua Luo  Respond to of 53903
 
FIRST CALL EARNINGS ESTIMATES

MU Micron Technology, Inc. 02/23/98
Industry: Semiconductr SIC: 3674
Latest Price: $33.75 1998 P/E: -
Analyst Recommendation: 2.6

QTR QTR FY FY
Feb 98 May 98 Aug 98 Aug 99
--- --- -- --
CURRENT MEAN EPS -0.15 -0.06 -0.12 1.10
Number of Brokers 16 14 16 13

Median -0.13 -0.02 0.00 1.10
Standard Deviation 0.07 0.09 0.29 0.47
Current High -0.03 0.07 0.26 2.00
Current Low -0.29 -0.24 -0.68 0.39

Year Ago EPS 0.18A 0.44A 1.02A -0.12
Current vs. Year Ago Change -183% -114% -112% 1017%
Report Date Mar 16 Jun 15 Sep 21 -

EARNINGS ESTIMATE REVISION MOMENTUM

Up Revisions last 7 days 0 0 0 0
Up Revisions last 30 days 1 1 0 1
Down Revisions last 7 days 1 1 1 0
Down Revisions last 30 days 4 2 3 2

EARNINGS ESTIMATES CONSENSUS TRENDS

Current Mean -0.15 -0.06 -0.12 1.10
7-days ago Mean -0.15 -0.06 -0.11 1.10
30-days ago Mean -0.14 -0.05 -0.09 1.07
60-days ago Mean -0.12 -0.03 -0.04 1.15
90-days ago Mean 0.23 0.30 1.10 1.80

The trend looks not very good. This may be the reason why MU was so strong on Wed but quickly run out of gas on Fri.

Does anyone know the detail explanation for these downgrades?

Thansk

A.L.



To: DavidG who wrote (29154)3/1/1998 8:47:00 PM
From: Richard Russell  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
Dg,
Very good Dave. I beleive this is something very constructive.RR



To: DavidG who wrote (29154)3/1/1998 9:53:00 PM
From: MR. PANAMA (I am a PLAYER)  Respond to of 53903
 
David...shit now I have a craving fer some pasta...Good to see you are drinking red wine...reduces chance of heart attack by 30-50 %. GRIM ... a wannabe chef



To: DavidG who wrote (29154)3/2/1998 12:01:00 AM
From: mike iles  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 53903
 
DavidG

bear: MU is not, repeat , not profitable at current prices. Unit cost of $3.00 approx. is wrong. Unit cost is a function of 2 variables. Last quarter, costs (excluding MUEI) were $415M and unit production was 90M of 16 Mbit-equivalent parts. Unit cost was approx. $4.60 ... ASP was $4.88 ... they eked out a small profit. Costs will be what this quarter, say $420M (contrary to popular opinion MU's costs go up, they make more chips, buy more equipment (not so much lately), hire more people ... e.g. 450 from MUEI) and unit volume will be up too. Say 15% which I expect to be generous. Gives you unit costs this quarter of $4.05 approx. This is not $3.00 or even close to it.

bull: the ol' stock market just don't care [one day it may].

regards, Mike



To: DavidG who wrote (29154)3/2/1998 12:21:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
david, the biggest bearish point of view is that dram bit capacity is much, much more than demand and will continue to be so.

my bullish point of view is that the world may end in 2000 so all the money the longs lose may not be of importance anyway ;-)