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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: roly who wrote (16851)	3/1/1998 10:45:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

i'm not negative just realistic-i love amat have made a fortune on the stock-great company in a very cyclical business -my point i'm tring to make is semi management really do a bad job in forecasting and we are in a downcycle that will not produce no growth this year -yes no growth-and not great numbers-people forget 1996-when amat got destroyed and traded at 12 pre split-i don't believe its that bad but what gets me concerned is asia melt down we are in the eye of the storm and if japan go deeper into trouble we should see a domino effect were europe will be the next -it could get ugly-at 3x sales in a downward cylce just seems no reason to bid the stock up and it will end ugly-if amat trades 2xsales its 22-as i have stated before in most down trends semi's bottom around 1x trailing sales-check 1996-2 years ago -i'm not negative but from some of you are not paying attention that we are not a short term bull mkt mkt for semi's earning will not be good for next 6-9 months-so when the stock goes to 20-28- you have seen the signals-don;t believe the market.

To: roly who wrote (16851)	3/1/1998 11:50:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Roly, And where were you late last summer and fall when the positive euphoria (and raging bulls) were saying no way the stock could go down and that Asia would have no effect on the stock price. My observation has been when "everyone" is positive that things are great and shout down opposing opinions, they are doing a dis-service to themselves and others by ignoring the possibility that maybe things aren't really so great. Kinda like the Titanic, the unsinkable behemoth, everyone thought that there was no way it could sink, it was to well built and infallible. We know lots of folks went down with the ship, convinced it couldn't sink. Are you willing to go down with the ship? Who knows what iceberg is hidden in the fog! Just my opinion, good luck with your strategy! BB