To: E. Graphs who wrote (10361 ) 3/2/1998 10:42:00 PM From: shane forbes Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 25814
E, TSO check this out: ---- MARKETS DRAM drubbing continues By now, the nightmarish slide in dynamic random access memory (DRAM) prices was supposed to be over. Instead, no end is in sight, say analysts. Capacity will continue to outstrip demand throughout 1998, warns Clark Fuhs, principal analyst at Dataquest Inc. in San Jose. And DRAM makers continue to invest too much in factories, adds Bill McClean, president of IC Insights Inc. in Scottsdale, AZ. DRAM capital investments comprise 41% of all chip industry expenditures, McClean contends, even though DRAMs make up only 25% of the chip market. To be sure, spending plans are being curtailed in Japan and elsewhere, and a great deal of capacity has been taken off-line. Mitsubishi, for example, said it was closing a U.S. wafer fab, the Texas Instruments-Hitachi DRAM joint venture collapsed in February and Motorola exited the market entirely. But much of that capacity was for older 4-megabit and 16-Mbit chips, while new fabs for 64-Mbit parts are still coming on-line. Perhaps the biggest culprit is the move to shrink die using 0.25-micron technology. Because the shrink sharply boosts total chips per wafer, the move instantly increases capacity. Some observers argue that Korea's economic crisis will constrict the flow of DRAMs, but others doubt that will happen because the country needs the sales in order to generate dollars. In addition, Korea does not want to repeat the past mistakes of the United States and Japan, both of which failed to invest in DRAM technology during downturns, and consequently lost market dominance. Samsung, the giant Korean chip producer, is targeting $1.6 billion in semiconductor spending this year, primarily for DRAMs, down from $2 billion last year, according to Keith McDonald, vice president of sales and marketing for Samsung Semiconductor Inc., San Jose. Most of the money will likely be spent in the second half of the year, by which time Samsung hopes the Korean won will have stabilized, he adds. ----