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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (1101)	3/2/1998 9:33:00 PM
From: md1derful	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

SF: I probably have you more than anyone to thank for keeping me in the stock with your timely news updates...getting into the stock was a no brainer..one of the most incredibly cheap buys this past year when it tanked to 95..the market simply doesn't hand you too many of these no brainers and ya have to take advantage of 'em when they come your way!!!

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (1101)	3/3/1998 12:05:00 AM
From: Sonki	Respond to of 22640

very bullish news: large bullish spreads in the options market contributed to the stock's 4-point advance on the New York Stock Exchange to 126-7/16, the highest price since last October, a trader said. The activity came as a panel of Brazil's National Telecommunications Agency was set to review on Monday a draft plan for post-privatization competition in the country's telecom sector.

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (1101)	3/3/1998 1:00:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Brazil stocks end firm on higher money inflows SAO PAULO, March 2 (Reuters) - Shares closed firm Monday on higher money inflows amid expectations the Central Bank will lower prime lending rates later this week, brokers said. biz.yahoo.com

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (1101)	3/3/1998 1:03:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

BRAZIL CONGRESS WEEK-Re-election dogfight looms Reuters, Monday, March 02, 1998 at 17:38 By William Schomberg BRASILIA, March 2 (Reuters) - Brazilian President Fernando Henrique Cardoso's re-election plan faces an important week as a powerful political party fights internally to either back him, or put forward a rival candidate. The Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB), one of the biggest in Congress, holds a national convention Sunday when it will vote on whether or not a candidate from within the party should take on Cardoso in October's presidential elections. The PMDB is a member of Cardoso's multi-party alliance and several of its leading lights are ministers in his cabinet. They support Cardoso's expected re-election bid and are determined not to allow a candidate from within the party to run against him. However, a smaller but still sizeable anti-Cardoso wing of the PDMB, opposed to the Brazilian government's pro-market policies, wants former president Itamar Franco to stand as their candidate. Franco rose from vice president to president in 1992, after Fernando Collor quit amid allegations of influence-peddling. It was Franco's government, with Cardoso as finance minister, which introduced the hugely popular, inflation-slashing Real Plan. Franco has claimed he is the true "father of the Real Plan" and opinion polls give him about ten percent support, hampering Cardoso's hopes of mustering 40 percent of valid votes and winning October's election outright in a first round. "Cardoso is concerned that the PMDB putting forward its own candidate might make investors jumpy," said Carlos Lopes, a political analyst with consultants Santa Fe Ideias. Lopes said Cardoso would spend the week lobbying PMDB members caught between the two camps and predicted that his supporters within the party would emerge victorious. "This is going to be a close call, but the government has all the power on its side, so it should win," he said. With much of the government's focus on the outcome of Sunday's convention, little progress was expected on its long-awaited structural reforms until next week at the earliest. Officials say the civil service reform bill could be put to a second and final full vote in the Senate March 11. If approved, the reform would then finally clear parliament after three years of opposition and delays. The government's other key reform bill -- of the social security system -- was approved in a first full vote in the Chamber of Deputies in February, but still faces a major test in the form of an opposition amendment which would eliminate the introduction of minimum retirement ages. Whips say they will seek to conclude voting on the amendments and stage a second and final full vote in the lower house by the end of March or early April. If no major changes are made during the remaining votes, the bill also clears Congress. Both reforms are seen as central to Brazil's efforts to narrow a public sector budget deficit which soared to 5.9 percent of gross domestic product in 1997 and has fuelled concern in markets about an Asia-style financial crisis. Another bill attracting investor interest -- which would make it easier to reform the tax and political party systems during a special, one-year period in 1999 -- was also unlikely to be voted in a lower house panel until next week. william.schomberg@reuters.com)) Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (1101)	3/3/1998 1:06:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

ADR REPORT - Telebras (NYSE:TBR) heads higher Reuters, Monday, March 02, 1998 at 18:09 By Ian Simpson NEW YORK, March 2 (Reuters) - Brazilian telephone holding company Telebras SA (SAO:TEL.P) rose Monday in active trade to stand out among American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and foreign shares. Traders said Telebras, a bellwether regional issue, was helped by release of data showing Brazil's trade deficit for February was $214 million, well below the forecast of analysts polled by Reuters. "I think you're seeing the beginning of a turnaround (in Brazilian shares) and the good data out of Brazil is helping," a trader said. Telebras was up 4-6/16 to 126-13/16, its highest level since late October, when Latin American issues were battered by worries stemming from the Asian financial crisis. The ADRs were among volume leaders on the New York Stock Exchange. Among other Brazilian ADRs, Unibanco (SAO:UBB) (NYSE:UBB) rose 1-11/16 to 35-15/16 and retailer Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao (SAO:PCA) (NYSE:CBD) was up 9/16 to 23-9/16. European ADRs advanced broadly, helped in part by prospects for lower interest rates and mergers and merger speculation. A trader said the European issues likely were far overvalued but demand for them still remained strong. "This is kind of like what happened when people wanted to get into the property market when they thought there was a shortage of property," he said. "Now they think there's a scarcity of stock. But what are you going to do?" Luxury goods maker Gucci Group (NYSE:GUC) (AMS:GCCI) rose 3-2/16 to 45-1/16 in heavy trade. Traders said the rise was fueled by market talk that rival LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (SBF:LVMH) (NASDAQ:LVMHY) would make a bid for the company. LVMH's ADRs were off 1/4 to 39-1/2. Telefonica de Espana (MADRID:TEF) (NYSE:TEF) rose 3-1/4 to 106-3/4, a 12-month high, after Santander Investment raised its rating to buy from hold. Advancing issues led decliners 406 to 189 among 888 ADRs and foreign shares. The ADR group was up 1.14 percent and volume in early afternoon was 57 million issues. ADRs allow U.S. trade of foreign shares. Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (1101)	3/3/1998 1:10:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Brazil telecom agency delays vote on blueprint BRASILIA, March 2 (Reuters) - The Advisory Council of Brazil's telecommunications regulator ANATEL has delayed until next week a vote on a blueprint for how competition will work in the sector after the privatization of Telebras (TEL_p.SA). biz.yahoo.com

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (1101)	3/3/1998 1:13:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

U.S. OPTIONS FOCUS/Telebras active as stock climbs Reuters, Monday, March 02, 1998 at 20:55 CHICAGO, March 2 (Reuters) - A flurry of activity in Telecomunicacoes Brasileiras SA (Telebras) (NYSE:TBR) (SAO:TEL) options injected life to an otherwise dull market on Monday. Several large bullish spreads in the options market contributed to the stock's 4-point advance on the New York Stock Exchange to 126-7/16, the highest price since last October, a trader said. The activity came as a panel of Brazil's National Telecommunications Agency was set to review on Monday a draft plan for post-privatization competition in the country's telecom sector. "There may be some speculation about it, I don't know, but there seemed to be a lot of two-way business," a trader said. He noted the sale of April 115 calls against the purchase of April 125 and April 130 calls and another spread whereby March 125 calls were bought against April 115 puts. "That helped put upward pressure on the stock," he said. Implied volatility for March at-the-money options rose to around 38 percent, up from around 35 percent on Friday. It has crept up from an average of about 30 percent in February. "People seem to be looking for some good news," another said. "Or it could just be momentum players getting into the market," he said. "The volume in calls is very bullish." Trading was quiet elsewhere, with most of the focus on options on top technology companies. "It's Telebras, Digital (NYSE:DEC), Compaq (NYSE:CPQ) and Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) -- that's the market," an options analyst said. S&P 100 options activity also was lackluster on the Chicago Board Options Exchange even as the index rallied to a fresh record peak early and then pulled back. The Market Volatility Index (INDEX:$VIX.X), which measures implied volatility on the OEX, rose 0.12 point to 19.55. chicago.derivatives.newsroom@reuters.com)) Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (1101)	3/3/1998 1:17:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 22640

FOCUS-LatAm banks seen prey to global players Reuters, Monday, March 02, 1998 at 21:06 By Fatima Cristina SAO PAULO, March 2 (Reuters) - Reports Monday that Goldman Sachs & Co was looking to acquire Brazil's maverick Banco Garantia have reignited a debate over the survival of Latin American investment banks in an increasingly globalized market. Analysts said the wave of buyouts and mergers in the investment banking industry was a worldwide phenomenon to which even some of the region's most successful banks were not immune. International brokering powerhouses like Goldman, Merrill Lynch and SBC Warburg are extending their reach as a way of gaining volume and leveraging their competitiveness in the dog-eat-dog financial services business. Garantia, a 300-person outfit which once enjoyed a reputation for virtual invincibility, could become the next victim of an unstoppable global trend, analysts said. "With the globalization of markets, there will no longer be any room for banks that are genuinely Brazilian, except for those which have very specific market niches" said Erivelto Rodrigues of banking consultants Austin Asis. Garantia chief executive officer Claudio Haddad on Monday denied newspaper reports that the bank was in the early stages of acquisition talks with Goldman. However, an industry source said the two are in preliminary talks that might lead to Goldman taking a stake in Garantia. The two banks have worked closely in the past. Garantia has modeled its operation on Goldman's successful meritocratic system and the two have teamed up on a number of big projects, most recently a failed bid to oversee the privatization of Brazilian telephone holding company Telebras SA. "We are not up for sale, we never were," Haddad told Reuters in a telephone interview. A Goldman Sachs spokesman declined comment on the reports. Despite Garantia's denial, a wave of mergers of medium-sized Brazilian banks with powerful international partners is already in full swing. Last year, SBC Warburg acquired Banco Omega and Robert Flemings took over Banco Graphus. Charlotte-based NationsBank assumed control of Rio de Janeiro's Banco Liberal in January. Foreign investment banks are flocking to Brazil, whose $800 billion gross domestic product accounts for half of that of all Latin America, eyeing opportunities in the country's lucrative mergers and acquisitions and asset management businesses. Like no other country in the region, Brazil has a strong investment houses. Institutions like Garantia, Pactual and Bozano Simonsen are respected in London and New York for their creativity and aggressiveness and compete head-to-head with the biggest names in the industry. During the years in which Brazil posted double-digit monthly inflation, these banks learned how to make quick profits in arbitrage. More recently, they were among the first to recognize the huge potential of Brazilian stocks as the country developed into one of the world's hottest emerging markets. But tougher competition coupled with narrower margins, following the successful introduction of an anti-inflation plan in 1994, have hurt the bank earnings, particularly in their trading operations. "More than ever, banks have to increase their volumes to show a profit," said Gustavo Campos, head of research at BCN Alliance Capital Management. Those that hope to avoid being swallowed up by a foreign bank are working on strategies to improve their competitiveness. Bozano, Simonsen and Pactual are already moving into retail banking, a sector that is expected to grow steadily over the next few years. Rodrigues of Austin Asis said last year's Asian debacle may speed up further mergers and buyouts in Latin America's investment banking sector. Local investment banks saw their profitability shrink in 1997 partly due to losses stemming from the Asian financial turmoil. According to a Austin Asis report on the results of 10 investments banks, Brazilian banks' return on equity fell roughly 15 percent on average in 1997. Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service